U.S. stocks will hit an all-time high in 2013 despite a "muddled" economic recovery, according to Robert C. Doll of Nuveen Investments.
Robert C. Doll, chief equity strategist and senior portfolio manager for Nuveen Asset Management, the $117 billion multi-asset affiliate of Nuveen Investments based Chicago, said he is cautiously optimistic about the year ahead.
“In the broadest terms, 2013 will see the United States experience a more muddle-through economy and a grind-higher equity market,” Doll said. “Our somewhat constructive outlook is not driven by expectations for a strong acceleration in global growth, but rather a modest improvement leading to increased business spending, which will make the recovery broader and more sustainable than has been the case since the Great Recession ended.”
For most countries in Europe, there will be fewer recessionary reports in the second half of the year, he said.
Domestically, Doll said the double-digit percentages in dividend growth will continue, despite higher taxes on dividends.
“In many cases, cash and cash flow are so strong that increased hiring and reinvestment by corporations could happen along with increased dividend payouts,” he predicted.
“We believe we will witness an increase in manufacturing jobs and GDP as a percentage of total jobs and GDP, admittedly from a low base,” Doll said. “Realization of this prediction in 2013 and beyond should have a positive impact on trade, capital expenditures, jobs and inflation.”
Doll further predicts U.S. stocks will record a new all-time high for the fifth year in a row, emerging market equities will outperform developed market equities and U.S. multinationals will outperform domestically focused companies.
Doll made 10 predictions for 2013:
• The U.S. economy continues to muddle through with nominal growth below 5% for the seventh year in a row.