Anyone who believes that hyper-partisanship will subside after the election in two weeks is deluding themselves, Greg Valliere told attendees at the annual Schwab Impact conference in San Diego yesterday.
The chief political strategist of Horizon Investments expects serious fissures to surface in both parties shortly after the election and doesn't believe either group will be able to heal its respective ideological divides.
Valliere called Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton a virtual "shoo-in" for three reasons. She has a far superior "ground game" in most key swing states, the Electoral College tilts in favor of Democrats, and the nation has changed dramatically in terms of demographics. However, he added the low turnout could make the election a lot closer than polls indicate.
Over the next four years, however, the country "could devolve into four parties." The "animosity" between Donald Trump supporters and House Speaker Paul Ryan and other Republican establishment types could lead to a GOP breakup, he said.
By next spring, Valliere also expects Clinton to be confronted by "sniping" from the Elizabeth Warren-Bernie Sanders wing of her party and it could eventually boil over. Warren and Sanders will demand big tax hikes, a single payer health-care system and tougher regulations in a host of areas.
The way events will unfold depends "on the margin of victory." If the Democrats manage to gain control of both the House and Senate in "a blowout scenario," pressure from the left will escalate. Valliere said that financial markets are likely to view a Washington, D.C., run by Hillary Clinton, Rep. Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Chuck Schumer unfavorably.
"Taxes could go up" in a big way were that to occur. If the Republicans retain control of the House, taxes won't rise.
If elected, Clinton would like to send a "positive signal" to Wall Street and the financial markets, while Warren and Sanders have said they don't want anyone from Wall Street in a major position like Treasury secretary. They probably won't get their wish, but they will be heard.
Donald Trump's tweets, comments and alleged molesting incidents have dominated the news cycle in recent weeks, pushing the stream of e-mails from Julian Assange’s WikiLeaks off the front pages. But the WikiLeaks documents have revealed in no uncertain terms the contempt Clinton and her aides hold for many on the left of her party, and these folks haven't forgotten. "The left is steamed," Valliere said.
If Trump loses, bitterness between his followers and the GOP establishment is likely to boil over. Valliere said that Clinton almost certainly would be trailing a ticket of Ohio Governor John Kasich and Florida Senator Marco Rubio. "She got to face the one candidate she could beat," he added.