Something Big And Terrible Could Happen
At least nine of the strategists polled listed terrorism or Middle East instability among their biggest concerns for the stock market in 2016.
"The obvious risk is some sort of geopolitical event that freezes up travel and trade. It could happen," said Steve Auth, chief investment officer for equities at Federated Investors. Consumers, too, could be kept at home by any public events perceived as terrorist in nature.
While free-falling oil has proven bad for stocks, the reverse would not necessarily help. A systemic crisis in the Middle East could easily spike oil prices, raising costs for consumers and businesses.
Not dark enough? Manley of Wells Fargo says he worries about "the risk that the vital spirit has gone out of the world's economy."
He said, "The deepest darkest fear I have is that we didn't really fix it six years ago, we just delayed it for a while. And rather than being sunk by a gash we are being sunk by a slow leak. It's not what I think, but it is what I worry about."