The Group of 20 meeting in China added to the chorus of voices calling for more fiscal measures to boost growth, which could have important implications for asset prices if carried out successfully.
With markets accustomed to a world of ever more innovative monetary policy, analysts from Deutsche Bank to Morgan Stanley say such a shift could in time lead to higher yields and steeper curves, and support bank stocks.
Japan looks set to launch a large spending plan in weeks ahead, though it may be months before there’s more clarity on U.K. or U.S. plans. Meanwhile, the ECB’s latest call for euro-area governments to do more looks set to fall on deaf ears.
G-20 finance ministers said monetary policy alone cannot lead to balanced growth and “fiscal strategies are equally important to support our common growth objectives,” in a statement on Sunday.
Japan is said to be discussing a 3 trillion yen spending increase for 2016. Finance ministry officials briefed Prime Minister Shinzo Abe that stimulus can be increased to 20 trillion to 30 trillion yen, Japanese newspaper Nikkei reports.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst David Woo says Japan is going to lead the rest of developed economies -- if it can find a way out, it will have a huge bearing on everybody else, especially when it comes to the effectiveness of further easing.
U.K. Chancellor Philip Hammond says the government could reset fiscal policy if deemed necessary in the Autumn Statement.
ECB President Mario Draghi said that to reap full benefits from monetary policy, other policy areas must contribute much more decisively, both at a national and European level.
The Bank of America Merrill Lynch fund manager survey shows a record net 44 percent of investors think global fiscal policy is too restrictive.