The cost of Medicare may go up drastically next year – by as much as 50 percent – for 15 million recipients not on Social Security, but it probably isn't worth starting Social Security to stop that increase, according to some advisors.

Medicare premiums are deducted from Social Security payments. For those older Americans who are receiving Social Security, whether they are retired or still working, their cost of Medicare will not rise. That's because federal law provides that if Social Security recipients do not receive an increase in benefits, which they will not next year, Medicare deductions will not go up.

The people who will be affected by the Medicare hike are the 30 percent, or approximately 15 million people, who are Medicare recipients but are not receiving Social Security benefits. Their cost may go up by a whopping 50 percent. For most, this means a Medicare increase from approximately $105 a month to $159 a month in 2016.

For those making more than $85,000 for an individual or $170,000 for a couple, who are already paying more than $105 a month for Medicare, the costs will increase as well. For people in the top income tier –individuals making $214,000 or more and couples making $428,000 or more – Medicare Part B could go up from $335 a month to $500 a month.

The states will be responsible for paying extra Medicare costs for low-income people also on Medicaid who are not collecting Social Security. Among the 8.3 million individuals eligible for Medicaid and Medicare, there are 3.7 million disabled people, most of whom are not old enough for Social Security benefits.

The National Governors Association estimates the higher premiums could cost states $2.3 billion a year if Congress and the president do not change the proposal. Some states already are saying they cannot afford the extra payments.

So, what can a Medicare recipient who is facing the increases do?

The easiest solution is to start taking Social Security benefits immediately so that the Medicare Part B cost is taken out of the benefit and it will remain at the $105 level. But some advisors say this may not be a good strategy in the long run.

 

“The Medicare increase is a one-time wallop,” says Dr. Katy Votava, founder and president of GoodCare, a health-care costs consulting firm and website. “The cost is supposed to come back down the next year.” Medicare costs have gone up, and back down, in the past, so a decrease is not unprecedented.

Also, the potential increase for next year is not a done deal. President Obama opposes it and Congressional leaders were working toward some kind of compromise before Speaker of the House John Boehner’s resignation threw Congress into chaos.

“I don’t know where else you can get a guaranteed 8 percent increase in your investments every year, so if you are holding off on taking Social Security to let it grow, it is probably not worth taking it earlier than planned,” says Alina Lee, director of financial planning at Cassaday and Company Inc., a financial services firm based in McClean, Va.

Lee is referring to people who have not taken early Social Security benefits or have delayed Social Security past their full-retirement age. Benefits increase by about 8 percent a year for each year they are delayed until age 70.

“You could go to a calculator to see which is more advantageous, but the further you are from the age you want to retire, the less beneficial it would be to take benefits now,” says Votava.