'Not Even Close'

"The facts just aren't supporting" Whitney's forecast, said J.R. Rieger, vice president of fixed-income indexes at S&P. "They're not even close."

Whitney, 41, who started New York-based Meredith Whitney Advisory Group LLC in 2009 after leaving Oppenheimer & Co., predicted 50 to 100 "sizable" municipal defaults as states slashed spending, in the interview with CBS Corp.'s "60 Minutes." As for timing, she said it would be "something to worry about within the next 12 months."

"There's absolutely nothing about our thesis that has changed," she said on July 12 in an interview with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Radio's "Bloomberg Surveillance" show in New York. "There are not enough revenues to go around and service all of the debt obligations or debt commitments outstanding."

Whitney also sought to amend her prediction in the radio interview, saying that she said in December "you'd start to see defaults within 12 months." She didn't respond to telephone calls and e-mails seeking additional comment.

Rare Events

Municipal defaults are rare. Moody's Investors Service said in a study released in February 2010 that the 10-year average cumulative rate in the municipal market was 0.09 percent from 1970 to 2009 for the securities it ranks, compared with 11.06 percent for corporate debt. Most were concentrated among nonprofit health-care and housing projects. Just three were general-obligation bonds, out of 54 in all, Moody's said.

U.S. Bank National Association, the trustee for Austin's Rutland Place Apartments project, made a partial payment of about $150,000 last month, according to a regulatory filing. The payment was on debt issued in 1998 to mature in 2033 with a 6.5 percent coupon, according to the Distressed Debt newsletter.

Moody's said in January that no state and only a few local governments would default this year on debt it rated, after none did in 2010.

"A locality is going to lay off a teacher before they default on their bonds," said Iris J. Lav, a senior adviser at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a nonprofit research group in Washington. "There are other things they can do."

Falling Spending