With U.S. stocks sitting near all times, Wall Street strategists are getting more cautious about what's in store for the benchmark indexes over the near term.
To this end, Bank of America Merrill Lynch Head of U.S. Equity and Quantitative Strategy Savita Subramanian compiled a list of ten reasons (and 21 charts!) why U.S. equities are at "elevated risk of correction."
Positioning
Subramanian notes that short interest as a share of float for U.S. stocks has hit a 12-month low. The upshot here was recently detailed by Citigroup Inc.'s Tobias Levkovich, who warned that investors were turning more bullish, taking the potential "sentiment 'oomph'" out of the market as short positions have been unwound.
The Most Hated Rally, in other words, is starting to get a bit of love.
Economic Surprises
Citigroup's U.S. economic surprise index has retreated sharply over the past month, signaling that the preponderance of data hasn't been solidly exceeding analysts' expectations. As U.S. stocks have loosely followed the gyrations of economic surprises over the past year, the recent breakdown in this relationship may signal rockier waters ahead.
Valuations
While acknowledging that these metrics aren't the best indicators for where stocks will go over shorter time horizons, the strategist points to elevated levels of a bevy of metrics (including forward and trailing price-to-earnings ratios, as well as the Shiller cyclically adjusted P/E ratio, price to book value, and enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) as signs that stocks have gotten rich — and investors might not be willing to pay a steeper price.
Elevated Expectations
Fund managers surveyed by Bank of America are desperate for more support for growth from fiscal policymakers — but projecting these hopes as expectations for what's to come may result in a letdown. Subramanian observes that the number of news stories containing the phrase "fiscal stimulus" surged in July.
Investors are similarly bullish on the prospects for earnings growth for S&P 500 companies, with year-ahead consensus estimates at their highest level in five years.
Growth
Earnings growth may be difficult to realize, the strategist cautions, with current top line performance looking soft. In fact, constant currency sales growth for firms outside of financials or energy has dropped to a three-year low.
China
Meanwhile, the world's second largest economy looks to be heading for another rough patch, Subramanian notes, with its manufacturing PMI dipping back below 50 (which points to contraction in the sector.)