T-Mobile US Inc. is becoming billionaire bait even though it’s the smallest national competitor in a market where the vast majority of the population already has a mobile phone.

What’s luring France’s Xavier Niel and Japan’s Masayoshi Son to bid on T-Mobile is a chance to get into the $195 billion U.S. industry before a new surge in demand for data services such as Internet access and video streaming. It’s the same rationale Verizon Communications Inc. used to justify its $130 billion deal to acquire full control of Verizon Wireless earlier this year. Data sales are already climbing 18 percent this year, according to analyst Chetan Sharma.

The bet is that wireless data will move beyond phones and tablets to a number of other devices, from cars to smartwatches to thermostats -- all requiring a way to connect to the Internet for updates and monitoring. If that vision comes true, there could be a gold mine in owning one of the few networks capable of handling that demand in the gadget-hungry U.S., where people have proved willing to pay steadily for wireless service even as spending drops elsewhere.

“Subscribers are adding more devices to their plan. And that’s going to drive more data usage, and data usage will drive more growth,” said Colby Synesael, an analyst at Cowen & Co. “The market is attractive, and I think that might spur people into action.”

Risks are plentiful in the U.S. market, too. Regulators are proving resistant to the idea of mergers. Price competition is growing fiercer. Investing in a large country with wide, sparsely populated areas is expensive. And demand could fail to materialize for the services the carriers expect to provide. For every company investing more in the market, there’s one seeking to exit -- T-Mobile parent Deutsche Telekom AG and former Verizon Wireless partner Vodafone Group Plc.

Discretionary Income

Still, there are few places like the U.S. for a wager on wireless data growth. Investment in faster 4G download speeds has outpaced Europe. Developing markets like China and Latin America don’t have the same discretionary income for mass adoption of new gadgets and the services that go with them.

“The United States has one of the strongest economies in the world, a good competitive framework for wireless, and still has lower penetration rates compared with other parts of the world,” Verizon Chief Executive Officer Lowell McAdam said last year, explaining the rationale for its wireless deal. “We are just getting started in machine-to-machine, and connected devices.”

With its deal, New York-based Verizon got full control of the largest U.S. mobile-phone provider. Son, the chairman of Tokyo-based SoftBank Corp., took on a riskier asset, acquiring struggling Sprint Corp. in a $21.6 billion transaction last year. Now he’s said to be seeking to put together a bid for Bellevue, Washington-based T-Mobile as well.

Iliad’s Bid

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