On the high end of the susceptibility scale are automotive service technicians and mechanics (100), electricians (96), detectives (83) and iron and steelworkers (98).
CRR's findings underscore the substantial risks to a financial plan of relying on extra years of work.
An unplanned early retirement requires stretching savings over more years, with fewer years of saving at high income levels just before retirement. Early retirement also can mean early filing for Social Security benefits, which reduces annual income substantially for the rest of a retiree's lifetime. And if early retirement comes before you qualify for Medicare (at age 65), the cost of health insurance can rise substantially.
The scattering of risk across occupations also has important public policy implications. Proponents of boosting eligibility ages for Social Security and Medicare argue that we can all delay claiming these benefits because we are all working longer these days. But it would create unnecessary, unpredictable retirement outcomes for millions of Americans.
How to know your own susceptibility number? Belbase's index has not been published in its final form, and there is no online tool yet that can show an occupation's susceptibility. Belbase's research will be published sometime in the next 12 months, along with downloadable charts of the index rankings.
"If you want to assess your chances of being able to work as long as you want, simply talk to older workers in your field," he suggests. "If you can't find any, that means you should probably have a back-up plan."
By the way, reporters and news analysts, I am pleased to say, scored a 37, so count on me to stick around here for a while.