David Kelly

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The Normalization Of An Abnormal Job Market

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Despite alternating fears about overheating and recession, it appears that the U.S. labor market remains on a soft-landing path.

Commercial Real Estate: Macro Risk Or Investment Opportunity?

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Commercial real estate has broad characteristics that should be attractive to both institutional and individual investors.

The Right Time To Cut Rates

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The Fed cutting rates in June will depend on monthly inflation numbers and particularly CPI numbers in the near term.

The Pressures Of A Full Employment Economy

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The most likely path for the economy is one of a continued, very tight labor market.

Will Rising Federal Debt Force Rates Higher?

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Most likely, the deficit and debt will continue to worsen, gradually adding to the underlying level of real interest rates.

The Inflation Slide Looks Set To Continue

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Fed officials worry that they might still have to trigger a recession to get inflation all the way down to their 2% target.

Investing In A World Of Increasing Complexity

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Despite all the uncertainties, recent data suggest that the economy is looking stronger.

The Investment Implications Of A Rising Federal Deficit

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Higher real interest rates caused by the federal deficit could drag on the economy.

Misleading Indicators For Today's Economy

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There is an over-reliance on traditional indicators that just don't work as well in the economy of the early 2020s.

Letter From Jackson Hole

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At the Fed's annual meeting this week, Chairman Powell will discuss today's economic landscape and the road ahead.

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