David Kelly

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Cooler Inflation And Slower Growth Should Convert A Fed Skip Into A Fed Pause

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There is no need to raise the risk of recession any further to combat an inflation problem that is clearly fading.

Sizing Up The Angles On Fed Policy

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For investors, it is important to assess all the angles on Fed policy this year.

Still Dodging A Downturn

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The April Jobs report came in stronger than expected and revealed a resilient labor market.

When Money Stops Talking

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The proliferation of alternative payment methods has made monetary aggregates much less relevant to the economy.

The Real Threat To Dollar Dominance

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The greatest threat to the dollar lies mostly in the current reckless standoff over the debt ceiling.

The Recessionary Price Of A Faster Decline In Inflation

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The Federal Reserve appears willing to push the economy into recession to achieve a more rapid victory over inflation.

SVB And The Fed: Braking Point, Not Breaking Point

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Silicon Valley Bank's unusual mix of assets and liabilities made it vulnerable to the Fed's recent aggressive tightening.

Investing Beyond The Profit Squeeze

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Corporations have been successful in growing their share of the pie by squeezing labor costs and boosting sales.

A Seasonal Surge And Its Implications

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The risk for the economy overall is that monetary and fiscal tightening will spark a recession.

The Lurking Slowdown

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Despite recent strong numbers on GDP and jobs, there is a slowdown lurking.

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