Policymakers might have an "overly optimistic" outlook on rates and inflation, researchers said.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said rates may need to go to 5.4%.
Investors expect the Fed to downshift to a quarter-percentage point increase.
But it probably won't be a severe slowdown, he said.
Investors see policy makers easing rates in the later stages of 2023.
Another 75 basis-point hike, or a 50 basis-point move, was likely at the Fed's next meeting, he said.
It will require “fancy footwork” from the Fed to achieve a soft landing, the firm's chief economist said.
A new report says high quit rates are normal during times of rapid economic recoveries.
The study pointed to the massive government support provided to the public during the Covid pandemic.
U.S. central bankers are confronting the hottest inflation in 40 years.
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