Surveyed economists now see a 30% chance of a recession over the next year, down from 35%.
Economists don't expect rate cuts until mid-2024, but the markets see the easing cycle starting sooner.
They now see the central bank keeping interest rates higher through the end of 2025.
A still-robust labor market continues to support household spending.
A robust economy is shaping the Fed's September meeting discussion.
Gross domestic product is expected to advance an annualized 1.8% in the third quarter.
The increasing split between Fed officials is clouding the outlook for rates.
The economists surveyed expect the Fed to keep rates at their peak level through year's end.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell had hinted at a suspension of the tightening campaign last month.
At the same time, tightening credit conditions have caused analysts to lower some inflation predictions.
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