Investment Perspectives

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Boy, This Economy Is Hard to Read. Mea Culpa

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I'm sorry I described signs of recovery as a “dead cat bounce” that would eventually be swamped by high interest rates.

U.S. Productivity Is On The Upswing Again. Will AI Supercharge It?

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Three straight quarters of strong growth have put productivity either back on trend or well above it.

Don't Declare The Death Of The Yale Model Just Yet

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It would take a few more muted years to shake belief in a highly successful investment strategy.

ESG Funds Bucking The Trend

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A backlash to environmental, social and governance names might be an opportunity.

The Pressures Of A Full Employment Economy

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The most likely path for the economy is one of a continued, very tight labor market.

Your Client's 401(k) Will Be Gone Within A Decade

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The intellectual case for getting rid of tax-advantaged retirement plans is strong, and the political case is catching up.

Stock Markets Are Driving A New American Century

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The U.S.'s growing financial dominance may be making up for its declining influence in other realms.

Municipal Bond SMAs Offer Diversification, Customization And Tax Advantages

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Muni bonds continue to offer diversification benefits and a portfolio ballast when volatility rises.

Inflation Selloff Is A Wake-Up Call For Traders

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The drop in stocks and bonds points to important challenges faced by the Federal Reserve and investors in the months ahead.

New Private Fund Rules: What RIAs Need To Know

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Seven separate new rules are designed to increase transparency and protection for investors.

Outlook For U.S. Economy Continues To Brighten

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Geopolitics and rates remain the key risks and, along with valuations, point to modest gains for stocks.

What Is A Bad Investment Decision?

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A good advisor should make clients aware of bad investment decisions.

Is TikTok's Financial Advice Any Good? As An Economist, I Say Yes

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Personal finance influencers on TikTok have some sound recommendations about managing your money.

Investing For Trump 2.0 Is Trickier Than You Think

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The base-case scenario of a second term will move markets until November--and beyond.

What Is The Fed Thinking?

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At its monthly meeting on January 31, the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee held firm on interest rates.

Don't Count On A Soft Landing For The Global Economy

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Recent developments in China, Europe and the United States suggest that the world economy's biggest challenges may lie ahead.

Equity Market Outlook 2024

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There is a mixed bag of factors, leading to many different outlook scenarios for 2024 and beyond.

Markets Don't Know What To Expect Anymore, And That's Good

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A greater diversity of economic forecasts can lead to a richer discussion and help expose previously unseen risks.

Another Trade War With China Would Be A Fiscal Disaster

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Higher tariffs would not only wreck the U.S. economy, they would also devastate the federal budget.

The Next Inflationary Surge

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There is good reason to believe that temporary increases in inflation will become more common.

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