By 2035, existential threats such as climate change triggering and exaggerating catastrophic storms or the immersion of artificial intelligence (AI) in everyone’s lives, eliminating more and more jobs, or the trillions of dollars in government debt resulting in some extreme austerity measures could potentially trigger a powerful uprising of the masses, bringing down the 1% in the U.S. and worldwide. However, a modern French revolution is improbable.
The 1% can, through direct and indirect influence, address the core needs of the remaining 99%. They can do this in many different ways. However, the critical point is that they can effectively avoid an uprising of the masses. This is not some devious conspiracy but an example of self-interest. What is also clear is that there will be a continued rise in the number and influence of the 1% in the form of tycoons and oligarchs.
By 2035, the wealth gap will widen, and the 1% will control at least 70% to 80% of the world's wealth. The minting of trillionaires, driven by the transformative power of AI, is right around the corner. For most of the 1% of the U.S. population, wealth management and related services significantly differ from what is commonly provided today.
First of all, extrapolating from the structural trends impacting wealth creation and accumulation, to be part of the 1% in 2035, you must have a net worth of US $50 million or more. The following 9% will have a net worth ranging from $20 million to $50 million. Notably, the number of billionaires will surge, increasing by at least 10X, a testament to the unprecedented growth in wealth, and there will be a trillionaire or three.
The U.S. A Destination For The Worldwide 1%
The same factors impacting the 1% in the U.S. affect the 1% worldwide. These are macro-trends and structural changes. Moreover, the consequences will be more extreme in many other jurisdictions.
Today, the U.S. can be described as a significant importer of the 1%. Its comparatively stable political and business environments, bolstered by a solid legal system, make it one of the premier go-to destinations for the extremely wealthy. For example, the U.S. is a tax haven for many non-U.S. residents because of existing treaties. In addition, many of the best medical facilities in the world are in the U.S., making it increasingly attractive to an extremely wealthy and aging demographic.
Contributing to the appeal of the US is the fact that many of the 1% currently and will continue to operate and live in multiple jurisdictions. In 2035, these global citizens, with direction, will often benefit from the advantages of being part of the U.S. while side-stepping being taxed by the U.S.
The 1% Will Rely On Family Offices
In 2035, among the 1%, 20% to 25% will have single-family offices. Most of the remaining 75% to 80% will rely on multi-family offices, delivering the same advantages as single-family offices. These family offices are expert coordinators of experts with a deep understanding of their clients' needs and a commitment to providing personalized wealth management. The intimate nature of family offices is essential, and state-of-the-art AI will support the professionals providing technical expertise.
High-performing family offices can provide superior results because they deeply understand their clients and can access the appropriate expertise anywhere. They go beyond traditional wealth management, optimizing their clients' financial and personal lives and ensuring their well-being and security.
Wealth management will always be critical for the 1%. Finding appropriate investments is a significant role of family offices. In 2035, new investment options will be available, many of which are derivative, such as climate devastation offsets. There will also be “thinking platforms” to help align investment choices with family financial agendas.
More considerable innovations will occur in the field of wealth planning. There is a near-universal agreement that government debt is out of control. It is a cliff we are speeding towards in a luxury self-driving car, and there are no brakes. While this can have devastating effects on the lives of most Americans, the 1% will be able to circumvent most, if not all, of the carnage.
Tax and other laws are constantly in flux, leading to opportunities. For example, off-world trusts and corporate entities will be available to the 1% within 10 years. Using these structures with their well-designed wealth plans provides extreme financial security.
A service that will be extremely important to the 1% in 2035 is concierge medicine, with a strong focus on longevity. As the 1% ages, variations of concierge medicine will become more critical. For example, the ability to use crisper technology will be commonplace. The ability to access cutting-edge individualized drugs and vaccines, especially during the next pandemic or two, is a given.
The incredible bifurcation of wealth will lead to a tremendous need for multi-level personal security. This includes cloaking their presence, a growing practice among billionaires and their single-family offices today, as exemplified by false flag operations and retained intermediaries. Privacy will become a luxury and a costly one at that.
Implications For The Private Wealth Industry
The 1% running away from the 99% and even the 10% running away from the 90% will have profound implications for the private wealth industry in the U.S. and across the globe. Recognizing this highly likely future scenario enables astute private wealth industry professionals who want to work with the 1% or even the 10% to capitalize on the inevitable.
For some, the answer will be senior management in single-family offices. The boom in single-family offices will require private wealth industry professionals with experience and expertise. Topping the list is the facility working with the 1%, including those with dysfunctional families. Private wealth industry professionals who help achieve the desired outcomes for their families will be well rewarded through a hybrid compensation arrangement, enabling them to join the 1%.
The lower end of the 1% is unlikely to have single-family offices and will rely on multi-family offices and a diverse group of specialists. Generally, they will turn to Wealth Advocates to identify solutions and opportunities and coordinate resources, enabling them to attain superior results. Again, because of performance-based compensation structures, capable Wealth Advocates will join the 1%.
Just as extreme bifurcation will occur within the U.S. by 2035, the same will be true among private wealth industry professionals. Those who develop the knowledge and capability and position themselves to work with the 1% will join their ranks. The rest will fare less well.
Jerry D. Prince is the director of Integrated Academy, part of Integrated Partners, a leading financial advisor firm. Russ Alan Prince is a strategist for family offices and the ultra-wealthy. He has co-authored 70 books in the field, including Making Smart Decisions: How Ultra-Wealthy Families Get Superior Wealth Planning Results.