Consequently, the recession I foresee will probably be accompanied by about an average drop in stock prices. The S&P 500 fell 19.6 percent from Oct. 3 to Dec. 24, but the recovery since has almost eliminated that loss. A normal recession-related decline of 21.2 percent—meeting the definition of a bear market—from that Oct. 3 top would take it to 2,305, down about 18 percent from Friday’s close, but not much below the Christmas Eve low of 2,351.

This article was provided by Bloomberg News.

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