Alot of headlines have been generated about tariffs and the threats of tariffs by the United States and the possible retaliation from other countries.

But so far, most economists and analysts think these policies have affected only a small percentage of industries and companies within the global economy. That could change, but experts hesitate to make predictions because the circumstances of world trade seem to change by the week, sometimes by the day.

Still, the Trump administration’s threats create an uncertain environment for companies, business owners and investors, says Andrew Rothman, investment strategist at Matthews Asia, an independent, privately owned investment manager focusing on the Asia markets.

So far, the president has imposed a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminum, even from allies like Canada, Mexico, the European Union and Japan, acts that have drawn strong rebukes from foreign governments. Some of these governments are threatening to respond in kind, threatening an all-out trade war.

Business groups representing auto makers, beverage companies, farm equipment manufacturers and food packagers say the tariffs will inflict financial pain on companies now employing millions of American workers. Manufacturers can’t anticipate what kind of impact these moves will have on their global supply chains. Milwaukee motorcycle maker Harley-Davidson has already announced plans to move some of its operations to foreign countries. Coca-Cola has also threatened to raise its prices if it faces higher costs for foreign aluminum.

“We’ve seen some pre-buying of steel by automotive companies and we will see more of that as the year goes on,” says Brian Sponheimer, research analyst for GAMCO Investors, formerly known as Gabelli Asset Management Co., based in Rye, N.Y.

Share prices for automobile companies such as General Motors, Ford and Fiat/Chrysler Automobiles, have dropped since early July.

The moves could augur double the pain for farmers: Agriculture machinery costs could likely go up amid a trade war, and meanwhile the farmers would find themselves unable to sell soybeans and other products overseas because of retaliatory levies. “This will impact farmers in 2019,” Sponheimer says, adding that, overall, “large-cap companies based in the United States that are multinational will be hurt, but small and midsize cap companies that are based in the United States and have United States customers will be the winners.”

“In the short run, tariffs will have an inflationary impact on targeted industries,” says Doug Fry, senior portfolio manager and partner at Reinhart Partners Inc., an employee-owned investment manager based in Mequon, Wis. “In the long run, we do not know the bottom line. The price of cars is going to go up. And if German and Japanese auto makers can buy steel cheaper elsewhere than they can from the United States, they will do it.”

It is arguable whether these moves can force China to make policy changes, Rothman says. “If the U.S. had gotten together with Europe and Japan and worked together to impose tariffs, it would have affected a bigger share of their market and put more pressure on China. But President Trump is also fighting with Europe and Japan, so they are not going to cooperate.”

Jamie Dimon, CEO of J.P. Morgan, has been outspoken in his belief that the United States should be presenting a united front with Europe and Japan if it wants to influence China.

Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European Commission, a policy institution of the European Union, was in Washington at the end of July to try to persuade President Trump to de-escalate the trade wars with U.S. allies. So far, the effort has yielded few results.

“Most advisors are only beginning to deal with this and many have not even started these conversations with clients about the impact of tariffs on their portfolios, because it changes day to day and hour to hour,” says Sponheimer.

However, clients are beginning to ask questions, says Dennis Nolte, vice president and financial advisor at Seacoast Investment Services in Winter Park, Fla. “Tariffs mean higher prices and inflation. The housing and automobile numbers are reflecting lower sales already.”

“One of the first things to consider for a financial advisor is how tariffs and resulting volatility are going to affect short-term results of portfolios,” says Mark Henry, founder and CEO of Alloy Wealth Management based in Charlotte, N.C. “Tariffs, while they may only have a short-term impact on markets, may cause enough volatility to affect clients’ long-term strategies.”

The tariffs “are already affecting input costs,” says Jason Brady, CEO and president of Thornburg Investment Management. That effect can be seen in the earnings results of car makers, he says. And the need to anticipate new tariffs poses a significant barrier to business planning.

“In theory, technology is less affected, particularly in a more services-oriented realm,” Brady adds. “But we’re seeing the trade tensions actually have effects on large tech names. NXP-Qualcomm is one example, and the growing importance of tech to everyday life in both China and the U.S., as well as the rest of the developed world, puts companies such as Alphabet, Apple, Alibaba and Tencent in the spotlight.”

He’s referring to a deal by American chipmaker Qualcomm to buy its Dutch counterpart NXP that fell through in July because China refused to give the merger the regulatory approval that would have been needed for the company to operate in China. Authorities blamed the failure to gain regulatory approval on the escalating tensions between the United States and China.

Overall, the economy is doing well and could do even better next year while the dollar continues to strengthen, particularly in the face of the slow growing economies of Europe, which have been much more sluggish in coming back from the recession. “The only flies in the ointment are the trade disputes with Canada, Mexico, the EU and China,” says Ben Ayers, senior economist at Nationwide Financial Services Inc. in Columbus, Ohio. “It is adding uncertainty to the markets, and if we see even more of a trade war, it will add stagflation and a little downside risk to the markets.

“It is going to be a struggle for some industries,” Ayers adds. “As a nation, the United States will lose impact on the world economy because we will lose demand for our products from abroad. There has already been an impact on farmers and those industries that have a high emphasis on exports. It will push down share prices and growth projections.”

Maybe because they are so new, the tariffs have had little effect on the global economy, says Omar Aguilar, chief investment officer, equities, at Charles Schwab Investment Management. “The trade war has had zero impact on the global economy so far, even though the situation is very concerning because countries try to protect themselves,” he says.

Ed Perks, chief investment officer of Franklin Templeton Multi-Asset Solutions, also downplays the risk. “At this stage, the likelihood of a full-scale trade war appears at least partially contained as world leaders continue to seek productive solutions,” Perks says. “On the whole, Franklin Templeton does not see international trade coming to a standstill or the global economy toppling into recession in the near term.”

However, the zero-impact may not remain that way for long. “Two opposing forces seem to be at work in the U.S.: the economy and trade tensions,” says Jeffrey Sutton, managing director of the Consulting Group at Oppenheimer Asset Management in New York City. “The economy is humming along with good data, and inflation fears [have] abated for the time being. On the flip side is the threat of tariffs on imports and the resulting retaliatory measures that would impact U.S. exports, which could have a menacing impact on growth globally. So far, the equity market has been fairly resilient in the face of these ongoing trade tensions.”