John Kerry has been flying around the world trying to get some of the biggest polluters to step up their fight against climate change in time for a White House summit on April 22. If new goals are the measure of success, the meeting is shaping up to be a disappointment.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s climate envoy this week touched down in Shanghai, China—the most high profile stop on a tour that’s so far included India, the U.K., Bangladesh and the United Arab Emirates. Later he’ll travel to Seoul, South Korea.
His mission is to reestablish America as a leader on global climate action after four years of backtracking under Donald Trump. That means setting an ambitious 2030 emissions reduction target and then cajoling others to strengthen their goals.
Before the U.S. can lead, however, it will first have to overcome the world's mistrust. After all, the country’s reneged on its climate promises before.
“They’ve clearly been looking to try to encourage other countries to also increase their ambition, but I don’t think this is the date,” said Pete Ogden, who served in the Obama administration and is now vice president for energy, climate and the environment at the United Nations Foundation. “I do not expect that everything will be on a glide path to 1.5 degrees” after the summit, he said.
The Paris Agreement strives to keep global temperatures from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels, the limit scientists say is needed to avoid the worst effects of global warming. To get there the world will have to zero out greenhouse gases emissions by 2050, a timeline that will only be achieved if countries step up their climate action significantly.
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Kerry can rely on some of the U.S.’s close allies to show support. Canada plans to present more aggressive targets this month. Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who'll meet Biden Friday at the White House, is currently discussing plans for stronger 2030 commitments, Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi told a BloombergNEF summit in New York on Wednesday.
South Korea, which has invested billions of dollars in overseas coal power plants, is debating whether to halt financing further projects amid pressure from the U.S. ahead of Biden's summit, according to government officials who requested anonymity to discuss private talks.
Kerry hasn’t had similar success with other countries. In New Delhi, he pushed Prime Minister Narendra Modi to set a net-zero target for India, the world’s third-biggest emitter. Top officials are considering a 2050 goal, people familiar with the discussions said earlier. The timing and scope of any announcement is unclear, not least because India wants to see more climate finance first.
“In climate debates, historical responsibility is a very important aspect,” minister Prakash Javadekar said in New Delhi on Wednesday. “We are not responsible for the climate change that is happening.”
Getting developed countries to contribute more is a sticking point. Brazil’s Environment Minister Ricardo Salles said in an interview he plans to ask Biden for $1 billion a year to curb deforestation in the Amazon basin. President Jair Bolsonaro’s administration is holding weekly meetings with Kerry. “Brazil has been able to preserve 84% of the rainforest and that means it has the credentials to ask for that money,” Salles said.