Bitcoin enthusiasts are beginning the new year fixated on something that likely won’t happen until May.
Whether a planned reduction in rewards for mining Bitcoin will boost prices or it’s already factored in is dominating discussions across mediums from Twitter to analyst reports.
In a halvening -- also referred to as halving -- Bitcoin rewards that go to the so-called miners that support the coin’s network drop in half in order to prevent inflation from eroding the purchasing power of the coins. In the previous reductions, the price rose about 8,000% in the year after the 2012 decrease and around 2,000% in the 18 months following the 2016 cut, according to data complied by Bloomberg.
Many observes say it could be different this time around since Bitcoin has become more mainstream and such events are typically priced in as markets mature. The Bitcoin options market, for example, doesn’t show increased price volatility for around the time of the halvening, which could mean that its impact is already factored in, according to crypto data tracker Skew.
Here’s What Being Said:
Nic Carter, co-founder of Boston-based crypto market tracker Coin Metrics:
“Unlike most Bitcoiners, I don’t think the halving is particularly bullish. I am of the view that most people with a Bitcoin position understand that it’s capped in supply, so the issuance change shouldn’t make a difference. Also, the halving is perfectly forecastable, so I have a hard time believing that it constitutes an informational shock. Bitcoin supply has been described and understood from January 2009 and has followed the ordained trajectory ever since.”
Scott Freeman, co-founder of JST Capital, a financial services firm specializing in the digital-asset market:
“If one believes in efficient markets, one could argue that the effect of the halving should already be priced into the market. We continue to believe that the price of BTC will be driven more by an increase in the number of new entrants into the market. We feel that many miners are operating profitably at current prices, but that the less efficient miners will be under pressure once the halving occurs.”
Kyle Samani, co-founder co-founder of Austin, Texas-based hedge fund Multicoin Capital Management LLC: