Outlook
• Economic and market environment: The global economy may have slowed, but we aren’t forecasting a recession.
• By the numbers: Stocks are up strongly in the first half of the year, but investors are focused on downside risks.
• Ten Predictions: At the halfway point of the year, most of our predictions are trending in the right direction.
• Outlook: With stocks fully valued, we think investors should focus on selectivity.
• Key themes for investors: Investing is likely to be challenging from here. Remaining flexible will be critical.
Choppy And Frustrating, But No Recession
We based our 2019 predictions around the theme that markets and economic data would be choppy, but that we would avoid a recession or end to the bull market. While it is still early, most of our predictions are trending in the right direction.
Prediction 1: The U.S. expansion becomes the longest in history despite GDP slowing to a still-above-trend increase of 2% to 2.5%.
We don’t have final second quarter growth numbers yet, but as of the end of the quarter, this current expansion has become the longest in U.S. history.1 The U.S. economy appears to be in a bit of a weak patch, but we remain confident that overall 2019 gross domestic product will grow over 2% for the year.