Blackstone’s Byron Wien does not foresee a recession in the immediate future but he says growth will be slowing because of a number of national and international conditions.

Wien, who is vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners and a senior advisor to both Blackstone and its clients on economic, social and political trends, is somewhat optimistic. But he notes in an article printed in Barron’s there are a number of troubling situations in the global economy currently.

The market is in rally territory and will not see a bear market or recession this year, Wien says. There will be negative performance for the major indexes, but he cautions that another assessment may be needed when oil reaches a definitive bottom.

“Technically, the market is very oversold and the Ned Davis Crowd Sentiment Indicator, which has proven helpful to me in the past, shows levels of pessimism comparable to 2012, but not 2009,” Wien says.

“The two big worries I have about the economy are capital spending and productivity. Weak oil prices have brought energy exploration and capital projects to a halt. The question is whether the consumer and housing can keep the economy from falling into a general recession. So far it looks as though we will be able to pull through with about 2 percent growth this year,” he predicts.

Wien also says he is worried about the action of the credit markets. “The concern is that a number of oil companies will be unable to meet their financial obligations and this will weaken the whole credit system. Investors are reminded of the sub-prime crisis in 2007 when these loans were less than 20 percent of all bank loans but they left us vulnerable to a potential meltdown of the commercial banks. I do not think bad energy loans will do the same damage, but that is the concern of the market,” he says,

China also is part of the problem. While official numbers that have been reported suggest strong growth is continuing, almost every observer believes that a slowdown of some significance is taking place in China, Wien says. The good news is that the Chinese economy is rebalancing so that consumer spending is beginning to overtake capital spending as it has in most western economies.

“Concerns about world stability may also be influencing investor apprehension,” Wien says. Since the Paris terrorist attack on November 13, people everywhere feel less secure. ISIS continues to be a threat to governments in the Middle East. The Syrian civil war continues and refugees are flooding into Greece and ultimately the rest of Europe. The world needs the European Union to hold together during this period of economic and political stress, he adds.

Finally, in the United States, the current race for the Presidency is unsettling. “Outsider candidates in both parties are gaining traction, which should be no surprise when you consider that more than 70 percent of the population believes the country is headed in the wrong direction. Investors are fearful of radical change, and all of the outsider candidates represent a major policy shift,” he says.

“If one of the outsiders were to win the presidency, Washington would become a chaotic place and the financial markets would not react well to that. The passing of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia and the prospect of a battle over his successor present another uncertainty to the market,” say Wien.

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