Every year, we always have a handful of “Also Rans” which don’t make the list of Ten because either we don’t think they are as important as the Surprises we picked, or we can’t bring ourselves to the point where we have more than 50% conviction that they will take place.

The first one concerns India. Our outlook is positive, but Prime Minister Modi is very controversial because of his policies toward religious minorities and his failure to continue to deliver on his economic reforms. Most observers are neutral to bearish on the Indian stock market. We expect the economy to grow at 6% in 2020, and its equity market to rise 20%.

In the second “Also Ran” we label artificial intelligence a paper tiger, much like Y2K, which everyone worried about 20 years ago. We think artificial intelligence has already had a profound role in manufacturing productivity and employment, and it is harder to eliminate jobs in service industries. We do not mean to downplay the tremendous impact that artificial intelligence will have. Rather, we believe that the positives are likely to outweigh the negatives. A permanent and large-scale wave of unemployment caused by artificial intelligence isn’t likely to happen in our view. Because the U.S. is already at full employment, some labor pressure relief may actually be welcome.

In the third “Also Ran,” we expect the social problems in Russia to escalate. Although we don’t expect the level of popular dissent in Russia to reach that of protests in Hong Kong, we believe the reaction to oppression resulting from harsh rule by the authoritarian Russian government and meager growth and opportunity will intensify. Vladimir Putin will be forced to direct more resources toward social programs and fewer toward defense. The Russian people feel the country’s oil resources have been used for military purposes, rather than for the good of its citizens. Worried about appearing less powerful, Putin moves to strengthens ties with China and the two engage in increased coordination to offset the power of Europe and the United States.

The world is clearly turning away from globalization, and government policies are moving more inward. We believe this shift is unfortunate, because countries thrive when they are interconnected. We are also alarmed by the rise of populism everywhere, whether we observe a shift to the left—as in the United States, France and Italy—or to the right—as in Hungary Poland, and also in the United States. This is negative for the world order and future growth. We see a decade of slow economic progress ahead for the world. That should make economic improvement in the emerging markets difficult, and in the fourth “Also Ran,” we suggest being wary of emerging market debt.

The fact that only four years ago we were all terrified by the nuclear threat represented by North Korea is difficult to believe. It has not gone away, but few people talk about it now. We realize that Kim Jong-un will never give up his nuclear weapons, and Kim realizes that if he uses one, his country will be destroyed. Donald Trump will go to North Korea to negotiate a deal where Kim maintains his nuclear arsenal but agrees to suspend his long-range missile program. That is the final “Also Ran.”

So, there they are, the Ten Surprises of 2020 and the “Also Rans.” We hope they stimulate your thinking about the year ahead. Now let’s see how they work out.

Byron R. Wien is vice chairman of Blackstone. Joe Zidle is chief investment strategist in the private wealth solutions group at Blackstone.

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