Over the next decade, China is likely to emerge as a pharmaceutical superpower. The world’s most populous country, along with other developing nations, are in the process of transforming their knowledge economies from “copycats” to true innovators.

Those were among the major investment themes managers at the American Funds unit of Capital Group see shaping the global economy in what is starting out as a very strange decade. In a webcast on Thursday, equity fund managers Cheryl Frank and Chris Thomsen, along with analyst Brad Barrett, outlined 10 megatrends that they believe will shape the investment landscape.

The first trend identified by Frank is the expansion of cloud-based services. She expects revenue in this area to more than double to about $250 billion by 2025. Every service device, from cars to refrigerators to cameras, will become increasingly digitized, she said.

Neither Frank nor Thomsen placed a specific dollar amount on China’s investment in pharmaceuticals and other health-care industries. The novel coronavirus pandemic, combined with past epidemics, are clearly driving China to make this a priority. Frank sees that country making huge investments in DNA research, immunotherapy and gene editing, among other aspects of health care. While China’s pharmaceutical industry presently lacks the clout of those in the U.S., Japan and certain European nations, it possesses certain built-in advantages. For example, its huge population gives it an unrivaled universe of patients for conducting drug trials.

ESG (environmental, social and governance) issues are increasingly varied and complex, Frank noted. It shows in a growing number of national issues, from wildfires to the pandemic to racial justice, and influences the way she evaluates comanies.

Will McKenna, a Capital Group marketing executive, noted that the mutual fund giant was likely to expand its own ESG footprint later this year.

Artificial intelligence is likely to emerge as the most disruptive trend since the Industrial Revolution, Barrett predicted. The shift to streaming content is also likely to accelerate, while machine learning could start to drive advertising ecosystems, he added.

Google parent Alphabet and Facebook will maintain their dominance, he said. Both companies have high fixed costs and low variable costs, which gives them the option of investing heavily in future development or drop revenue gains to the bottom line.

 

Even though more regulation looms for the two giants, their businesses enjoy scale, feedback loops and network effects. “It’s a matter of how they are regulated rather than if they are regulated,” Barrett said. “Regulatory disruption is already priced into [these stocks].”

International fund manager Chris Thomsen said he saw parallels between today’s pandemic and the SARS epidemic, which he lived through in Hong Kong in 2003. He recalled taking a flight from Hong Kong to Johannesburg, South Africa, on a 747 in which he was one of only two passengers.

In both the technology and pharmaceutical industries, Thomsen believes China and a number of emerging markets will display a surprising amount of innovation in the next 10 years. By 2030, China is likely to be producing many global blockbuster drugs.

Another trend he expects to unfold is the mobile wallet. Mobile payment penetration is 35% in China and 30% in India. In contrast, it’s only 9% in the U.S. and 7% in the U.K.  “The digitization of daily life is here to stay,” he said.

Telemedicine is likely to be a major beneficiary of the pandemic. Frank expects this young health care delivery format to grow at a 21% annual clip from $46 billion in 2019 to $176 billion in 2026.

Health care awareness is also likely to expand. “People are becoming more conscious and mindful of diseases,” Frank noted.