If you go by the numbers, Aspen’s luxury real estate market didn’t have a great third quarter.
The average sales price in the top 10% of the market slid 4.6% from the same period in the preceding year, according to a report by appraiser Miller Samuel Inc. Its entry price threshold—the number at which the top 10% of the market begins—fell 11.8%, from $17.35 million last year to $15.3 million in 2021. Average square footage, median sales price, and number of closed sales fell, too.
But the reality is very different. “To brokers on the ground, the market is moving about four times faster than normal,” says Jonathan Miller, president and chief executive officer of Miller Samuel. “The market compared to a year ago has slowed, but it’s still very fast compared to historic norms.”
Aspen brokers agree, with one exception: It’s not that demand has diminished, they say. It’s that the inventory necessary to meet demand simply isn’t available.
“It’s unlikely that 2021 is going to eclipse 2020,” says Jennifer Banner, an agent at Christie’s International Real Estate Aspen Snowmass. “What’s slowing things down is lack of inventory across the board.”
Brokers are literally “knocking on doors looking for sellers,” she says, and when something does come up, buyers jump.
“I listed a $12 million property 48 hours ago,” says Compass broker Steven Shane. “I received an offer—a very good one—this morning, and I have someone else who’s highly interested.”
Ongoing Demand
Aspen’s ongoing appeal runs counter to the rebound in urban areas, where the market has come roaring back; earlier this month, Bloomberg reported that third-quarter apartment sales in Manhattan were the highest for any quarter since 1989. In theory, demand for one market should cannibalize from another, but it turns out the market is not a zero-sum game.
“It’s fascinating to see the legs this market has,” says Erik Berg, a broker with Engel and Völkers in Aspen. “People are just realizing: ‘I don’t need to be in NYC or San Francisco or Los Angeles 12 months out of the year.’”
And so, amid a hangover of people who are still part of the much-hyped “urban exodus” of high pandemic buyers, a group of second- or third-home buyers is suddenly reentering the market.
“The Covid panic is over,” says Lucy Nichols, a broker with Aspen Snowmass Sotheby’s International Realty. “That was just sheer terror; people were buying sight-unseen, and they just wanted out of wherever they were.”