“Keep calm and carry on.” Advisors are keeping in contact with clients during the pandemic. Although we have a 24-hour news cycle, there isn’t much positive news we can pass along. We need to find more news.

Let’s add another perspective. My wife and I often travel to China as tourists. We’ve made friends in all walks of life. We keep in touch via WeChat, their version of Facebook. Friends are kind enough to share charts and data, along with observations about everyday life. Like us, they love posting pictures.

What Happened In China?
The Chinese got the virus first. This happened around Chinese New Year, January 25^th, when almost everyone heads to their hometown to gather as a family. It’s similar to our family reunions at Thanksgiving. This posed a big problem, because people left big cities and dispersed. The government extended the holiday and required everyone to stay where they were. Wuhan in Hubei province was the hotspot. You saw how they could build 1,000 and 1,600 bed treatment centers, entire buildings in two weeks, complete with plumbing, sanitation and electricity. 

What About Data Quality?
They have been gathering and reporting data. It’s logical to ask: “Is the data accurate?” Gathering data is an imprecise activity. Around the world, business leaders are used to making decisions based on incomplete data. You have scientists, health-care professionals and government officials working towards a common goal. Gathering data in a country with 1.4 billion people, many living in rural areas is tough. You’ve seen the revised death totals in Wuhan. We’ve got to trust worldwide, everybody does the best they can, revising as they get more data, current and historical.  

Let’s Talk Data
The Covid-19 #Coronavirus Data Pack is very useful. It’s something our friends in China sent us. It reports both static data (what they learned from crunching numbers) and dynamic data. You can see the charts are updated frequently.  Here are a few high points:
• We talk about flattening of curves. The first chart is Corona infection trajectories. You see the curves for at least 14 countries. You can see the growth of outbreaks is flattening in places like Spain and Italy. The data is frequently updated. This was current as of today (4/21).   Sources include Johns Hopkins at the Financial Times.
• Fatality rates. Another chart shows in the U.S., 5.4% of those infected have died. In China, the percentage is 5.5%. The U.S. has 2,417 deaths per million people. That’s about half of Spain’s. It’s also current as of today (4/21/20). Johns Hopkins University is the source.
• 80.9% of those infected have mild symptoms. “Like flu, stay at home.”  This is based on a study of 44,672 confirmed cases in China, compiled by the China Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Statista is also mentioned. It’s dated 3/31/20.
• Death rate for people without pre-existing conditions is 0.9%. If you have cardiovascular disease or diabetes, the death rate increases to 10.5% and 7.3% respectively. Same source as above, same date.
• What about Italy? Since those aged 60+ are at higher risk, it’s useful to look at another 100-box grid chart. Using an average victim age of 79, 48% of deaths were for people with 3+ serious medical conditions. 25% of deaths came from patients with one condition plus the virus. 1% came from people with no pre-existing conditions plus the virus. The source cited in 355 deaths from 16,925 confirmed cases as reported by the Italian Portal of Epidemiology for public health. Same dating, 3/31/20.

There are 10 charts in the Data Pack. You can check out others.

Let’s Talk More Data
How about cases in China? The U.S.? Worldwide? Here’s what friends in China provided.

The Worldometer Covid19 Coronavirus Pandemic chart lists data by country across 11 categories. It lists data for 210 countries and is frequently updated. We are most interested in U.S. data.  As of 4/21/20 they report:

Total U.S. cases: 799,780
New cases: + 7,021
Total deaths: 43,177  (5.4%)
New deaths added: + 663
Total recovered: 72,561  (9.1%)
Active cases: 684,442
Serious/Critical: 13,951 (2% of active cases)
Total cases (per 1 mm): 2,416  (cases per million of population)
Deaths (per 1 mm): 130 (deaths per million of population)
Tests administered: 4,058,245
Tests (per 1 mm): 12,60 (tests per million of population)

The chart also allows you to drill down to the state level. It’s a dynamic chart, frequently updated. The chart also shows data for China at the national level while a third chart, Covid-19 Global Pandemic Real Time Map shows data at the county, province and city level in China.

How Did China Return To Normal Life?
You’ve heard the story how China kept everyone in place until the numbers went sharply down. What did they do next? Once the Chinese government determined the statistics said it was safe, restrictions on travel were gradually lifted. One friend, staying with family in the countryside, couldn’t immediately return to the big city because taxis and ride sharing services hadn’t resumed yet. Train service, usually 16+ trains daily at that station, were running maybe five instead. Eventually, transportation went back to normal.

The trains were deliberately operated at 60% capacity. If a train coach has five seats, three on one side and two on the other, the seat next to you was kept empty as a form of social distancing.

People in major cities had been self-isolating. When people returned from the countryside (or abroad) they need to go through a 14-day quarantine procedure. This might involve staying in your apartment for two weeks. It might mean you stayed at a designated quarantine hotel for 14 days. I saw pictures from one of the hotels. It was as comfortable as a Marriott Courtyard. Unlike a conventional hotel, you stayed in your room for two weeks.  You either brought your food in at the start of the quarantine period or you ordered home delivery.

After 14 days, you received documentation allowing you to move around normally, go to work, shopping, etc. People in China often wear masks because of concerns about air quality, now everyone is expected to wear them. Their major concern is reintroduction of the virus through foreign travelers or Chinese citizens returning from overseas.

Your temperature is checked everywhere. You walk into a supermarket, it’s checked. They have infrared devices, similar to the Progressive “Name Your Price” tool seen on TV. They point it and get instant readings.

Life is gradually getting back to normal. Restaurants are reopening, but people are hesitant about crowded spaces. They are promoting their private dining rooms. Many Chinese restaurants have several, normally used for family or business gatherings. Shops are open, but there are no tourists, because most countries have a ban on foreign travelers. This will eventually get lifted, but it’s tough on the tourism industry. I’ve heard 98% of factories are back in production. This should solve the supply chain concern, but now exports are down because most of the world has slowed their economies to fight the virus. If stores around the world are closed, they aren’t buying product to stock their shelves.

What do our Chinese friends tell us? They are extremely concerned about our health. They don’t want us leaving the house. They want us wearing masks. It’s likely their TV news shows people buying up toilet paper in Western countries. We try posting photos when we go supermarket shopping showing lots of fresh vegetables and no huge crowds. OK, so we shop very early.

The Chinese seem to have accomplished what they did because they placed restrictions on movement, require quarantine periods for people arriving from elsewhere, certifying people’s health and gradually relaxing restrictions. It seems like we are following the same pattern.

Bryce Sanders is president of Perceptive Business Solutions Inc. He provides HNW client acquisition training for the financial services industry. His book, Captivating the Wealthy Investor can be found on Amazon.