Many countries across the globe are either launching a digital version of their fiat currencies or are strongly considering doing so.
The biggest nation to do this is China, which for a very long time either welcomed, or banned all cryptocurrencies, depending on the day. It now seems that a digital yuan issued by China’s central bank is just months away. Many other global central banks are in various stages of going digital.
But wait. Although issuing a country’s currency in a digital form may have many advantages (faster transactions, cost savings, etc) and may portray progressive thinking, it does not change a whole lot in central bank policies. In other words, central banks still will be in control of their own monetary policies. International investors who are strong proponents of cryptocurrencies, and particularly of bitcoin because of its decentralized structure, should be very wary.
At the end of the day governments are still “the same old, same old” and relatively un-trusted when it comes to digital currencies.
A case in point (granted, extreme): Venezuela President Maduro decided to replace the country’s basically worthless currency with a new asset (oil)-backed digital version, or petro crypto. Projecting safety with a currency backed by oil reserves would certainly revive the economy and increase the population’s confidence.
Or so it was thought. Venezuela planned to issue its petro crypto backed by five billion barrels of oil reserves. Actually recovering those reserves (unsubstantiated) did not persuade people to buy the petro “tokens.” The government now plans to back its new currency with just 30 million (rather than five billion) barrels of “liquid, physical material” in storage tanks and “available for immediate commercialization.” Venezuela has also been pushing for the country’s retailers to accept the petro token. So far there is still no evidence of any commercial exchange or source of liquidity.
A digital asset-backed fiat currency is still subservient to the actual country’s government policies. Most global currencies are backed by the “full faith and credit” of those individual countries, which will certainly not change just because there is a digital replacement.
A true global digital currency not subject to central government control still continues to be bitcoin, or a similar version. Anything else is just a government-issued currency in disguise.
Bill Taylor is managing director and chief investment officer of Entoro Wealth and is a frequent contributor to Financial Advisor.