One exception is Arizona, where divorce numbers did bounce back over the summer to bring the state slightly above expected levels. In New Hampshire, meanwhile, data from March through November show a 10.1% drop in marriage and a 36% plunge in divorce.

In the first half of 2020, there were signs of an impending spike in divorce, with reports of a surge of filings in China as it came out of quarantine, and a disturbing rise in domestic violence arrests and calls to the police while U.S. cities were under stay-at-home orders in March. But Manning said surveys conducted at Bowling Green show most couples report little change in the amount of conflict in their marriages.

Even if couples want a divorce right now, “for lots of people, it’s just not practical,” said Linda Ravdin, an attorney at Pasternak & Fidis in Bethesda, Maryland. While couples with relatively simple divorces have been able to reach deals, she said, Covid-19 makes other negotiations difficult. Child custody decisions are hard when schools and daycare centers are closed. Financial settlements are trickier when spouses are out of work or uncertain what the economy holds for their jobs or businesses.

“People are not ready to make big decisions,” Ravdin said. “People are -- to their credit -- trying to do the right thing by their children, by themselves, realizing we’re all in this predicament together.”

For marriage in the U.S., a key question is how many weddings called off in 2020 will eventually go ahead. If a significant number don’t, Covid-19 could have a lasting impact on a generation that was already cautious about tying the knot. In 2019, Bowling Green’s figures show, there were just 30.5 marriages per 1,000 unmarried American women, about a third of the rate’s peaks in the early and mid-20th century.

This article was provided by Bloomberg News. 

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