Three years ago today, the Illinois Supreme Court struck down the state’s attempt to cut its employees’ pension benefits to chip away at a retirement-system debt that’s swelled to almost $11,000 for every man, woman and child.
Since then, Illinois’s credit rating was downgraded to the verge of junk, its bonds have tumbled and its largest city -- Chicago -- was stripped of its investment-grade status by Moody’s Investors Service. And Republican Governor Bruce Rauner and the Democrat-led legislature have made no real progress toward a new plan that doesn’t violate the state constitution’s ban on reducing benefits.
“Illinois failure to address its pension crisis has resulted in further deterioration of the state and cities’ financial condition, exorbitantly high borrowing costs, and an inability to address other critical needs at the state and local level,” said Laurence Msall, president of the Civic Federation, a Chicago nonprofit that tracks state and municipal finances. “Time is not your friend when your liabilities are compounding and your revenues are not.”
The funding shortfall across Illinois’s five retirement systems climbed to $137 billion by last June, a jump of about $17.8 billion since 2015, after the government for years failed to made adequate contributions. That pension deficit -- more than four times larger that its debt to general-obligation bondholders -- is adding hundreds of millions of dollars in costs to Illinois’s budget each year as the government plows more money in to catch up.
Illinois has been contending with the issue for decades. In 1994, Illinois passed a law that was supposed to ensure that the state had enough assets to cover 90 percent of its liabilities by 2045, though it went on to skip annual payments or fail to contribute enough. At the same time, investment returns were hammered by last decade’s stock-market busts.
“There hasn’t been any progress made,” Dick Ingram, executive director of the Illinois Teachers’ Retirement System, the state’s largest pension. “It’s a case of the numbers have gotten so big that nobody honestly really knows what to do.”
Even as the state is set to pay $8.5 billion to the five retirement systems in 2019, it’s still not enough. Unfunded liabilities keep growing. And the 2019 contribution is more than three times the state’s payment a decade earlier: Illinois paid $2.8 billion to pensions in 2009. By 2045, the projected contribution will be $19.6 billion, according to a March report, based on actuarial valuations.
Illinois has actually made the problem worse since its highest court’s ruling in 2015. In the past, if a pension fund’s assumed rate of investment return got lowered, the state would step up its contribution. But last year lawmakers approved so-called smoothing, allowing the state to phase in hundreds of millions of dollars of those increased contributions. It helped the state ease its budget shortfall temporarily but will be costly over the longer term.
The longer the state doesn’t address the pension crisis, the closer Illinois gets to taxes that are overly burdensome, to credit downgrades, to not paying pensions or even bond defaults, said Richard Ciccarone, president of Merritt Research Services.