Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden is likely to defeat President Donald Trump in next week’s general election contests, according to a political analyst popular with investors, but America might not know the real outcome for many weeks.

In some states, like Pennsylvania, election results may take weeks to roll in, said Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist for AGF Investments, to advisors at Schwab’s virtual 2020 IMPACT conference this week.

“We could go to bed on the night of November 3 and not know who is the winner,” he said. “The one scenario that might make a difference is if Biden becomes a clear winner in Florida—and we should know by 9 to 9:30 p.m. who is doing well in Florida. If it’s Biden, I can’t see Donald Trump winning this election.”

But many states may take a week—or more—to return results, said Valliere, pointing out that it took six weeks to finalize the results in a primary for a House of Representatives seat from New York state this summer.

Advisors and their clients should be concerned about what might happen should the results be unclear or questionable.

“Let’s say it looks like Trump narrowly lost, just barely in Pennsylvania and Arizona and the electoral college—he will appeal that,” said Valliere. “Trump has made it clear he will take the election to the courts. He’s convinced that the election is rigged, there’s corruption in the voting, and that it’s all rigged against him.”

The last time a presidential election went to the courts, in 2000’s Bush v. Gore, it took the Supreme Court of the U.S. until December 12 to stop the Florida recount, which made George W. Bush the winner.

This year, arguments and deliberations could go into 2021, said Valliere.

“On January 20, at 12 noon, the Constitution is quite explicit about what is to happen,” said Valliere. “You must inaugurate a new president. If there isn’t one picked yet, some constitutional experts are saying we could have temporary President Nancy Pelosi (who is currently speaker of the House of Representatives, third in the line of presidential succession), or Senate [President] Pro Tempore Chuck Grassley, who is 87 years old. You can’t make this stuff up.”

Valliere believes that Biden will win the popular vote, but the electoral vote is still in question.

“If he can get the big three: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, I think Biden will be just about there,” said Valliere. “I don’t think the winner will get more than 300 [electoral] votes, but I make Biden the favorite to get around 300 electoral votes.”

In contrast, DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeff Gundlach said on Tuesday that he believes Donald Trump will win re-election.

Valliere points out that, even with his huge deficits in most national and battleground state polls just days before the election, it’s too soon to rule out the re-election of the president.

“Is it possible that like we saw in 2016, we could see him come on strong in the last week and maybe not win the popular vote, but the electoral vote?” asked Valliere, adding that Trump also faces large deficits in advertising and funding in the latter stages of the campaign compared with Biden—something the president did not face in 2016.

But a few things might make the difference for Trump. Valliere says the White House has been holding out hope that a Biden gaffe, perhaps comments about the future of oil and fossil fuels, could boost Trump’s chances in states like Pennsylvania and Texas.

Valliere also expressed concerns about Biden’s “frailty.”

“I’ve known him for 40 years; he’s maybe lost a mile off of his fastball,” said Valliere. “He sometimes can’t find the right words. I think that’s a factor as well.”

Valliere dismissed the idea that a story about Hunter Biden’s questionable business dealings could become an October surprise that might turn an election, but he also said that more controversy could be unearthed before election day that’s harmful to either Biden or the president.

Pollsters have improved their methodologies since 2016, said Valliere, reducing the chance that they could be wrong.

“Many feel that polls don’t accurately capture Trump supporters, but poll takers feel like they have better methodology now capturing a better mix of rich and poor, black and white, young and old, male and female. They’ll still tell you they have a hard time figuring out turnout. If it’s a cold and rainy day in Columbus, Ohio, on election day, maybe the turnout for Biden wouldn’t be so great, but turnout for Trump’s supporters would probably be great even in a hurricane.”

Rather than believing any one poll (he doesn’t), Valliere recommends that those curious about the potential trends and outcomes in the elections look at aggregates of polls, like those on Realclearpolitics.com, which he is a big fan of.

By looking at changes in certain polls over time, they can be useful in capturing trends in the electorate’s sentiment, said Valliere, who has traced a pattern through 2020 where Biden performed strongly throughout the summer, then faded as the race tightened through early autumn.

He points out that Biden is running more strongly with key demographics in 2020 than Hillary Clinton did in 2016.

“Biden’s numbers among females are better than Hillary Clinton’s,” he said. “Biden has a 25 percentage-point advantage over Trump among female voters in some areas, which is kind of a surprise. An awful lot of senior citizens, who Trump carried four years ago, are saying they don’t like the way he handled the virus. It’s not a surprise now that it’s very close in Arizona and Florida, two states filled with retirees.”

Early voting numbers also seem to favor Biden, said Valliere, with 61 million Americans having already cast their ballots as of Tuesday. He believes most of the people standing in lines to vote are Democrats—but that Republicans could make up a lot of ground on election day.

But Republicans’ ability to gain ground between now and Tuesday is limited, he said, as at least “94% to 95% of the public have already made up their minds.”

The other big wild card is the pandemic, he said.

“People feel like [Trump] hasn’t handled it well: The U.S. has about 4% of the world’s population, but about 24% of the gross fatalities,” he said. “I wouldn’t call that doing a great job. He continues to have rallies with many people who do not wear masks, and his polling numbers have been quite weak.”

But Trump might get some late traction with voters if he runs against Biden’s agenda.

Biden is particularly vulnerable to attacks on his tax plan, said Valliere.

“You have to conclude that Joe Biden’s proposals are bold and audacious,” said Valliere. “He wants to raise taxes on individuals, on corporations, he wants to raise capital gains taxes, raise the estate tax and enact a new Social Security payroll tax. I’ve been doing this a long time. I think I’ve not seen many politicians in my career saying, ‘Vote for me. I’m going to raise your taxes.’ That’s not really seductive. I feel like in this last week, Trump will emphasize that a lot.”

Democrats have a “decent chance” to win at least a tie in the Senate, said Valliere, 50 seats to 50 seats held by Republicans, which would mean the tie-breaking vote, cast by the vice president, would depend on the outcome of the presidential election.

“I think that right now markets prefer a Biden government and one-party control over everything else, but there’s anxiety over higher taxes, the state of the defense sector and fossil fuels,” Valliere said, adding that financial services industry regulation and health-care policy would also be concerns should Biden emerge victorious. Yet, “if we do see Senate races break the way it’s starting to look, I do see the so-called blue wave.”

Valliere gave some predictions about what the early days of a Biden presidency or a Trump second term would look like.

If Biden wins, the day after his inauguration he’s likely to connect with world leaders to reset the U.S.’s foreign policy relationships.

“The second thing he’d do is instruct some top people to look at the regulations that Trump has dramatically reduced,” said Valliere. “We would look at emissions regulations, labor standards, and begin the process of undoing what Trump has done on regulations. At the same time, he would be on track to get a stimulus bill. I was sadly disappointed at not seeing anything done by Pelosi or [Labor Secretary Steven] Mnuchin. I think we probably won’t get a bill before the holidays, and it might be left to Joe Biden right after inauguration to start working on a big stimulus.”

Only after the stimulus is passed would Biden start working to increase taxes, said Valliere, but higher taxes would come eventually.

If Trump wins a second term, his first move might be to push for a large infrastructure spending bill, said Valliere.

“He also definitely wants to take his tax cuts and make them permanent, because the initial Trump tax cuts phase out in the middle of the term,” Valliere said. “He would also make efforts to finish the wall and continue to nominate conservative judges. He also, finally, might produce a health-care plan.”

Neither candidate is likely to make inroads toward reducing the budget deficit and managing the mushrooming national debt, said Valliere.

In the longer term, a Biden win might lead to a one-term presidency, said Valliere, after which the Democratic torch could be handed to vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris or another of the party’s rising stars.

“Looking at 2024, the Republicans would have a huge fight between the Trump faction and more traditional Republicans,” he said. [Vice President Mike] Pence, Nikki Haley and Tom Cotton of Arkansas are all likely to run. We’ll have maybe a dozen Republicans running in 2024.”