That sentiment was echoed by Capital Group’s Pramod Atluri, who is a manager on the firm’s Bond Fund of America, Income Fund of America and American Balanced Fund. Atluri urged investors to consider high-quality bonds, like “government bonds, AAA mortgages and investment-grade corporate credit,” as good havens during coronavirus-caused volatility rather than reach for yield in riskier bonds.
It might be a good time to own more fixed income. Columbia Threadneedle’s authors expected the Fed and other central banks to intervene with lower interest rates and additional quantitative easing in response to the coronavirus. If investor sentiment sours enough to create a “demand shock” in financial markets, the authors believe that central banks will ease more aggressively than the market is currently anticipating.
And equity investors should think carefully about whether to sell during – or immediately after – market declines, wrote Brad McMillan, chief investment officer at Commonwealth, earlier this week.
“For all the hype, then, in many countries and certainly in the U.S., the coronavirus remains a very minor risk,” wrote McMillan. “Another way to put that risk in context is that during the current influenza season, there have been 15 million cases, 140,000 hospitalizations, and 8,200 deaths. Compared with the average flu season, then, the coronavirus does not even register. With 53 current (U.S.) coronavirus cases, it could certainly get worse. At least in the U.S., however, the overall damage is not likely to come close to what we already accept as ‘normal.’”
But Hackett also cautioned against rushing to buy the dip – a sentiment voiced last week, before the market declines, by Mohamed El-Arian, Allianz’s chief economist.
“There are still many uncertainties surrounding the scope and duration of the outbreak, as well as the ultimate economic impact,” said Hackett. “We are likely to see elevated volatility until some degree of certainty emerges. Additionally, volatility is likely to remain elevated given the phase of the business cycle and the noise from election season. Long-term investors should stick with their plan, as things should settle in the intermediate/long term.”
The Columbia Threadneedle report urged caution in stock investing – though the long-term bull market case for equities remains intact, the coronavirus is creating too much volatility for the authors to feel confident about equities in the short-term.
U.S.-based tech giants Apple and Microsoft have already warned that the coronavirus is going to negatively impact their earnings, noted Columbia Threadneedle, and other companies around the world are following suit.
At Nationwide, Hackett said that a coronavirus-driven global slowdown amidst high equity valuations and a strong dollar could render analysts’ prior 2020 growth expectations irrelevant – but perhaps the starkest warning came from Nigel Green, founder and CEO of deVere Group.
In a message circulated on Wednesday, Green said that the disease could compound the impacts of headwinds like trade disputes, the U.S. presidential elections, tensions in the Middle East and already-present slowdowns in Japan, Germany, India, Hong Kong and other major globalized economies.