Stocks and bonds may be struggling right now, but don’t expect much volatility going forward.

“Since the financial crisis, the volatility in the real economy is about half what it was prior to the financial crisis,” said Christopher Alwine, global head of credit fixed income at Vanguard.

“So that translates into lower volatility of economic growth, lower volatility of inflation, and ultimately lower volatility in the pace of monetary policy,” Alwine said at the Inside Fixed Income conference Tuesday in Newport Beach, Calif.

Inflation and GDP growth “just don’t bounce around as much as they once did,” agreed David Lebovitz, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, who joined Alwine and Michael McClary, chief investment officer at TOPS Portfolios, on a panel during the event, which is sponsored by Inside ETFs.

“Our expectation is for volatility to pick up at the end of the cycle, but with this lower, slower, longer dynamic,” which may prevail over the next decade, Lebovitz said.

“That said, I think the transition from easing to tightening [by the Fed] could be a bit of a catalyst in getting volatility to tick higher into the end of this expansion,” he added.

Alwine warned about “complacency” in the tightening yield curve—usually a sign that an economic slowdown is in the offing.

“There’s a lot of talk that the yield curve doesn’t matter anymore, because term premiums are lower and because of central bank involvement,” he said. “But it’s always been a good signal” of a slowdown.

Vanguard expects the yield curve to continue to narrow, with the 10-year Treasury ending the year around 3.20 percent, near where it is now, Alwine said. JP Morgan thinks the 10-year will “grind higher” to 3.50 percent by the end of next year, Lebovitz said.

Assuming the yield curve is going to flatten and that the Fed has a couple more rate hikes in it, advisors should focus on the short end of the curve, balancing less-risky paper with some credit risk on the longer end of the curve, Lebovitz said.

“We have been taking credit risk over duration risk for some time—that is our favorite trade,” McClary said.

Weakness in emerging markets could continue as the dollar remains strong and trade tensions unsettle investors, the panelists said.

And “emerging markets will continue to struggle until we see energy prices come back up,” McClary added.