J.P. Morgan Asset Management is predicting annual returns of 6.4% over the next 10 to 15 years in a traditional 60/40 portfolio, according to its 2025 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report.

The forecast represents a drop from last year’s forecast, which was about 60 basis points higher, but is better than what the firm foresaw two years ago when it predicted a 4.4% annualized return, according to David Lebovitz, multi-asset solutions global strategist at JPMorgan Chase's asset management unit.

Internationally, the firm is projecting 7.1% annual returns for global equities and 7.2% for emerging market equities, a slight decrease due to lower growth expectations in China, the report found.

A healthier global economy and increased government spending will be factors in equity growth, he said, as governments have transitioned from austerity programs to spending more in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. 

“The thinking there is the genie came out of the bottle during the pandemic,” Lebovitz said. “Everybody got a taste of fiscal [spending] and it’s going to be really difficult to put that genie back in.”

Governments are spending domestically to limit the impact of any potential supply line disruptions, according to the report.

“You have the combination of governments that are willing to spend a bit more and that spending gets directed inward, which in theory then helps boost the overall growth engine even further,” Lebovitz said.

The report highlighted private market investments, noting that they have become an additional option for those looking to diversify their portfolios or as an additional income source.

“If you want to generate more income, you’re going to have to look toward the private markets,” Lebovitz said. 

The report assumes returns of just under 10% for private equity, with real estate returns hovering around 8%. The report also forecasted that commodities would have annual returns of just under 4%.

The firm projects that there will be an annual boost of 20 basis points to developed market growth because of artificial intelligence. 

“In the coming decade, the benefits of artificial intelligence and automation will accrue increasingly to the wider economy and likely support corporate earnings,” it said.

Lebovitz said investors will miss out on investment opportunities if they continue to have their money sitting on the sidelines in cash. 

“The reality is that cash returns are not sufficient for most folks and institutions to achieve their long-term financial goals,” he said.