Just as other businesses are going back to the drawing board to take a fresh look at bedrock assumptions, I'm wondering what we will find when we do the same. But I think we're poised for really good, wonderful change because a lot of people are trying to figure out how to make positive contributions to what's going on. Everybody wants a good future for our clients and our industry.
Lessons Learned
September 1, 2009
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Black SwansThings I hope we have learned: Perhaps the Great Recession will help create better Monte Carlo systems for testing extreme market conditions. Clearly, looking at the bell shaped curve helps in normal times but fat tails, while appreciated in up times, have a far more negative effect than previously thought. Also, few appreciate that a fat tail on the upside is an indication of risk. www.sonatacapital.blogspot.com