The U.S. economy has a “close to 100 percent” chance of entering a recession next year, according to Mark Yusko, managing director and chief investment officer of Morgan Creek Capital.

Dennis Gartman, editor of the Gartman Letter, pegged the probability of a recession in 2019 at 50 percent, adding that the catalyst for a recession will almost certainly come from the Federal Reserve.

“The fuel that had been injected into the system is not being starved, but it’s certainly being inhibited,” said Gartman. “If they don’t continue some kind of quantitative easing methodology, that will be a precursor of a recession. Eventually, we should also see the yield curve move to an inversion, and six months after that a recession. Are we recession proof? Absolutely not.”

Yusko and Gartman delivered their comments in a lunch keynote conversation to attendees at the 9th Inside Alternatives and Asset Allocation conference in Las Vegas on Tuesday.

Yusko noted that despite signs of quantitative tightening on a relative basis, monetary policy remains loose in real terms and thus it will be difficult for markets to fall dramatically in the near term, but the Fed’s hand will be forced by inflation.

Currency devaluations causing inflation are underreported, said Yusko, because income inequality leaves much of the political and creative classes unaware of the struggles of average people.

“We look at the nominal value of stuff and we’re getting robbed, but we don’t realize it because the currency is getting devalued right in front of our eyes,” said Yusko. “The average person is getting destroyed  because they don’t have any assets … the rich get to the top, they create policies that inflate asset values and decrease the purchasing power of currency.”

Both speakers rejected the Trump administration’s populist trade rhetoric and tariffs.

“The trade rhetoric is one of the dumbest things in the history of all administrations and it will cause a global recession,” said Yusko. “Global trade is off the cliff, it has actually turned negative and it is going to continue to get worse.”

Gartman called protectionism a “slippery slope,” adding that the U.S. cannot bring countries like China to bear with tariffs.

Both speakers said that inflationary risks and low valuations make today a good time to invest in commodities. “Commodities prices are extraordinarily inexpensive,” said Gartman. “You need to own some sort of ETF that gives you access to the commodities markets.”

Gartman and Yusko also agreed on the potential for blockchain technology to touch off a revolution in the financial industry by removing the need for third-party involvement in transactions, but were split on the prospects for cryptocurrencies as an investable asset class.

Gartman called the largest and oldest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, a “worthless commodity.” “The problem I have with Bitcoin is that if I go out and buy a car this afternoon with Bitcoin, will the car dealer, given an x number of Bitcoin, object to selling me the auto if Bitcoin falls by 5 percent?” said Gartman. “I wish Bitcoin investors well, but it’s a punter’s paradise, it moves 5, 10, 15 percent in the course of a day, and until that stabilizes, you’ll have a hard time selling me on it.”

Yusko countered that cryptocurrencies would likely replace traditional fiat currencies in the future. “Bitcoin is digital gold,” said Yusko. “For 5,000 years, gold has been money. An ounce of gold, for 5,000 years, has been able to buy a fine men’s suit. It has been a near perfect store of value for 5,000 years and we messed that up in 1971 when Nixon took us off the gold standard and placed us on the fiat standard. Now, one-by-one, the currencies are blowing themselves up. That’s what happens when currencies hyper-inflate. Paper currencies will always go towards their value, which is zero, but digital currencies will become a truly global currency … you should all take at least 1 percent and buy Bitcoin.”

Both men advocated chip manufacturers as investments to participate in the expansion of blockchain technology, with Gartman recommending Nvidia and Yusko pitching AMD as his favorite.

Yusko also called for owning more emerging markets, echoing many economists' belief that global growth and investment returns should be higher in emerging markets than in the developed world -- but Gartman disagreed, at least over the near term.

“Emerging markets are markets from which you cannot emerge during an emergency,” said Gartman. “Invariably, the stuff hits the fan and when you have to get out, you can’t get out. There will come a time where, if you bought an ETF of emerging market equities, in 25 years you’ll do great. In the course of the next two years, I think you’ll do poorly.”