Although the geopolitical news may have seemed chaotic in recent days, the market is breathing a sigh of relief that allows it to continue an increase built on fundamental economic strength, advisors said Thursday.
Investors have already taken a step back from the fear of war that erupted in the hours and days after the Trump administration killed Iranian general Qassim Suleimani and Iran retaliated with non-lethal air strikes, said Alon Ozer, chief investment officer for Omnia Family Wealth based in Aventura, Fla.
There was a short period of time when the world thought something terrible was going to happen, but that did not last and the market has rebounded, Ozer said in an interview with Financial Advisor.
“Futures dropped at first but then leveled off as” both sides made it known that no one wanted war, Ozer said. “The markets reflected the fact that everything was going to be OK. We watch geopolitics very closely. At this point the market is going to go back to focusing on fundamentals."
Peter Johnson, CEO of Ashfield Capital Partners in San Francisco, said in an interview the market reacted well Thursday because the economic fundamentals of the United States are stable and in a position for more growth.
“You have to look beyond the headline noise” of everything from impeachment to Iran, Johnson said. “The economy is doing well and it can continue. When people are talking about the headlines, they are not talking about the fundamentals, which are doing well.”
Globally, several countries are pumping money into their economies, which is a long-term development that helps the economy in the United States and abroad, he added. After most other political crises in history—from the end of the Vietnam conflict to the impeachments of both Bill Clinton and Andrew Johnson to the fall of the Berlin Wall—stock markets for the years following these crises went up double digits.
“The tax cuts, low unemployment and low interest rates are part of the economic fundamentals that are strong,” Johnson said. “We look forward to 12 to 18 months of a positive market. The last 10 years do not predict the next 10 years. There is no reason we cannot have another 10 years of a bull market. It will have some setbacks, but that does not reflect the long term.”
Hilary Kramer, chief investment officer of Kramer Capital Research based in Washington, D.C., agreed the economy has a lot of cushions in place to offset any fear of a prolonged downturn. The Federal Reserve Board is the biggest safeguard.
“Everyone knows a sudden shock will be met with an interest rate cut, which means rumors of crisis can come and go without anyone losing their nerve. There's also a sense that U.S. stocks are the best place for people around the world to park their money and get more than the minimal to negative interest they would get from bonds,” Kramer said in an e-mail.
“Despite all the threats, the mood is fairly optimistic,” Kramer said. “What I see are investors who have already priced in the worst-case scenarios, and they're still buying stocks. There's a wall of worry in place, but we're climbing it, day by day. People just aren't convinced the world is going to end.
“Investors are looking toward the future at all the great innovations coming over the horizon,” she added. “It feels more like a boom ahead and nobody wants to miss out on that. Of course, the path won't run smoothly, but the long-term rewards should more than compensate … for a few bumps along the way.”