Because COVID-19 has only the Democratic presidential campaign to compete with in the current news cycle, the disease has been able to shake the markets. Interestingly though, Lloyd noted that some financial experts wonder whether the markets were looking for a catalyst for correction anyway. “Everybody has been talking about a correction for over a year. Were they just looking for a reason? I don’t know. It’s worth considering,” he said.
As for the health impact of COVID-19, he said it’s “far less deadly, but far more contagious” than other pandemic outbreaks. There are more than 220,000 documented cases worldwide with more than 9,000 deaths, mostly in China, Italy and Iran.
The U.S. has seen more than 10,000 cases of COVID-19 and 150 deaths. “And we know many, many more people are carrying the virus and they may not have symptoms,” Lloyd said.
The symptoms of COVID-19, an acute respiratory illness caused by a novel coronavirus, are similar to other respiratory illnesses causing fever, coughing, congestion, difficulty breathing—and the real problem, which is viral pneumonia, he said.
“And for individuals suffering from viral pneumonia, they may need support from a ventilator, and there are only a finite number of ventilators on this planet right now.” Many of the preventative strategies being used now are meant to delay the onset of the disease so that as many people will have access to that advance care as need it if it becomes necessary, he said.
Lloyd said it’s important to know that the coronavirus mutates easily. “Think of it as an automobile. When mutation occurs, the only change that happens to coronavirus is the license plate. The identity that your immune system uses to recognize that virus. It’s the same reason why we get a different flu shot every year, he said, explaining that mutations in the influenza virus year to year alter your body’s ability to recognize it. “And that’s why they keep trying to stay ahead of the curve in making a brand new vaccine every year.”
And while COVID-19 is highly contagious, it’s not nearly as contagious as the measles or chicken pox. Lloyd explained that epidemiologists use a number called R0 (R naught) to measure the number of cases, on average, an infected person will cause during their infectious period. “We think the number is slightly above 2, meaning one active sick COVID-19 patient will give the disease to two other people.
By comparison, one sick person infected with the measles virus will give the disease to 20 other people. “It’s at the other side of the spectrum,” he said.
So the chance of getting the disease is high but the fatality rate from the disease is low, Lloyd said. We know how many people have died, but we really don’t know how many people have been exposed, how many are infected by the virus, how many people have symptoms, or how many people actually got sick. “And we may not know that for months or even years, so it’s important to take that into account,” he said.
“But up until now in the pandemic, we know that in countries that practice rigorous preventative measures like South Korea, their infection fatality rate is less than 1%,” he said, noting that South Korea’s numbers are the most valid because they lead the world in early testing.