Schwab strategists think the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points next week and are predicting a more aggressive rate-cutting schedule in 2025.

“Our expectations are the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points next week, even though I think that 50 could easily be justified,” Kathy Jones, managing director and chief fixed income strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., said during Market Talk webcast today.

A new Reuters poll found that 90% of 101 surveyed economists with Jones, believing the Fed will lower rates by 25 basis points at each of the U.S. central bank’s three remaining policy meetings in 2024. Only nine economists think the Fed should be more aggressive and cut rates 50 basis points, Reuters reported today.

The Fed will also update its so-called dot plot of key economic estimates at the Sept. 19 meeting. The Fed’s last dot plot estimated a 4% to 4.25% Fed funds rate at end of 2025. That should be closer to 3.50% or so now, with a steeper downward slope leveling off in 2026 and beyond, Jones predicted.

The remaining question will be whether or not the Fed decides to front load these rate cuts or stick with a gradual pattern. “I think given the deterioration in the employment situation, probably there is more front-loading as was suggested by [Fed] Governor [Christopher] Waller last week,” Jones said.

Waller said in prepared remarks at the University of Notre Dame on Friday that, "If future data shows significant deterioration in the labor market, [the Fed] can act quickly and forcefully.” He added that the central bank “would also cut at consecutive meetings if data calls for it, as I would be for larger cuts if needed. I stand ready to act promptly to support the economy as needed."

Waller said he does not believe the economy is in a recession or necessarily headed for one soon, but stated that “the current batch of data no longer requires patience, it requires action."

Is it time for the Fed to declare a victory over inflation? “I’d be surprised if there was literally or figuratively a victory declaration on the part of the Fed, not just because measures of inflation they track are not yet at the 2% target,” said Liz Ann Sonders, Schwab's chief investment strategist.

Fed members would “be somewhat hesitant ... to represent something akin to arrogance. I think they were somewhat burned by the use of the word ‘transitory’ [when describing what turned out to be soaring, stubborn inflation]. I think they have tremendous regrets over the utilization of that word,” Sonders said.

The Fed is conceding that inflation has come down enough where they can ease policy, “but they also might want to be mindful of some of the mistakes the Fed made in the 1970s when governors twice declared victory and cut rates, only to see inflation let out of the bag again, so they had to increase rates again leading to a Paul Volcker,” Sonders said.

Volcker, Fed chair from 1979-1987, had to hike the Fed funds rate to 20% in 1980 in order to curtail inflation.

“We don’t think the conditions are the same, but they want to be mindful of that,” Sonders said.

As the Fed gears up for its first rate cut, analysts have already seen the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada and the Bank England, along with other advanced economy central banks, begin shaving interest rates.

“Just over half of the world’s central banks in advanced economies have already started to cut rates. That’s 11 of 18 central banks. So we’re now at the tipping point of more than half of the world’s advanced economies’ central banks cutting rates,” said Jeff Kleintop, managing director and chief global investment strategist at Schwab.

Kleintop said that in the coming month or so, he expects Australia, Norway, South Korea and a few other advanced economies joining the U.S. in cutting rates.

“The cuts are starting to lift economic activity, which is one of the reasons they cut rates. Q3 is the first quarter in a year in a half where GDP for all the G7 economies is positive. While it may feel like the U.S. is slowing, we’re seeing a lagged impact of rate cuts begin to improve elsewhere,” Kleintop said.