The famous Wall Street maxim that the stock market is not the economy is getting tested like never before.

Fueled by unprecedented stimulus and a slowing infection rate for the virus, risk assets have been staging a V-shaped recovery as traders front-run a rebound in a business cycle reeling from its biggest shock in decades.

After the best month for the S&P 500 Index in 33 years, stocks have deviated from growth data by the most on record, according to one metric. Ditto corporate bonds in Europe.

Equities that tend to win in the good times dubbed cyclicals have outperformed defensives even as Citigroup’s U.S. economic surprise index plunged to the lowest since at least 2003.

Now, those economic warning signs have stopped the rally in its tracks. Following a barrage of terrible data, a gauge of global stocks is headed for the first three-day drop since the height of the sell-off.

It’s a potential gut-check for investors in a market where no one can figure out with any confidence how to price the damage wrought by a once-in-a-century pathogen. One thing they do know: The market-versus-economy battle is in uncharted territory.

“Hope is playing a bigger role in asset valuations than I’m comfortable with,” said Abi Oladimeji, chief investment officer at Thomas Miller Investment in London. “Markets have priced in a lot that really remains highly certain and just a small variation, a small movement in those factors could trigger a disproportionate price response.”

Thomas Miller’s portfolios have turned neutral on stocks from underweight, but are staying away from high-yield credit and higher-risk equities.

The S&P 500 is now up 26% from its March trough as slowing infection rates fuel hopes the global economy can begin to open up, while record monetary stimulus fuels a hunt for yield. The U.S. benchmark is now trading at 20 times the coming year’s forecast earnings, near the highest since 2002.

Based on how bear markets in the last 150 years have tended to recover, Societe Generale SA calculated that the S&P 500 is likely to be 4% lower by the end of the year from Friday’s close.

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