The economy is facing a lot of headwinds, but now is not a time to panic, said Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, a faith-based financial services firm headquartered in Houston.

The labor market is strong and the U.S. has never entered a recession with a strong labor market, Doll said in an interview. Instead, there has been—and will be—a slowing of the economy, which was inevitable after last year’s strong growth.

“There are a lot of legitimate concerns, but consumer health is relatively good and there is a lot of money still out there” from the government-based pandemic payouts, Doll said. The soonest a recession might happen would be the second half of 2023, “but no one can see that far out.”

Doll, who is famous for his New Year’s economic predictions, said that at mid-year “the stock market will bounce around and go nowhere ... with continued volatility. When we came into the year, we predicted a down stock market” from last year’s highs and that is what has unfolded. As is frequently the case, contradictory trends are buffeting the economy.

For the near term, the focus is going to be on second-quarter earnings reports, which are going to include some disappointments, Doll said.

Disappointments also are embedded in the overall economy, creating some risks for the investor and consumer, Doll said. At the top of that list of problems is the price of oil and subsequently of gas. Gas and other commodities, including food and other consumer goods, are going to continue to be plagued by shortages, which will keep prices high.

Also, no one should discount the continuing disruptions that the Ukraine-Russia conflict are unleashing on the world markets, he said. The impact of the conflict will be one more factor pushing inflation and market volatility.

However, Doll said, inflationary pressures will moderate in the second half of the year, reducing the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will continue an aggressive pace of interest rate hikes of 50 basis points for more than the next two to three times it meets. Although the focus has been on inflation and whether it will continue to punish consumers, inflation generally has been declining since March. “But we went from 2% to 8 % and it will eventually go down, it is not going back to 2% any time soon,” he said. At the same time that “inflation will begin to settle down, the dollar will weaken in 2022.”

On another positive note, corporate insiders are buying more stocks than they are selling for the first time since before the pandemic, Doll said.

The economy is not looking too bad in first world countries, it is also beginning to improve for emerging markets, due to the reopening of the Chinese economy, Doll said.

A big unknown is President Biden’s Build Back Better proposal. “Build Back Better did not happen, but will a Build Back Smaller happen? If it does, that will be a plus for the stock market,” Doll said.