Affordable housing may be an unheralded economic issue that could influence the upcoming elections, according to a new survey by real estate website Redfin.
Thirty-eight percent of U.S. residents who already voted as of November 1 reported that dismal housing affordability impacted their vote for president, the survey said.
Kamala Harris voters were much more likely than Donald Trump voters to say housing affordability factored into their decision: 43% of respondents who already voted for Harris say affordability impacted their pick, compared with 29% of respondents who already voted for Trump, Redfin reported.
At the same time, 32% of U.S. voters reported that they think mortgage rates will fall if Trump is elected, compared with 23% who think rates will fall if Harris is elected. In contrast, 32% of voters think rates will increase if Harris is elected, compared with 28% who think that will happen if Trump is elected.
“It’s worth noting that homes in traditionally blue parts of the country are typically quite expensive, which is likely one reason Harris voters were more likely to say housing affordability impacted their vote than Trump voters,” Redfin said.
Despite intervention by the Federal Reserve Bank at their September meeting—when governors voted for a 50 basis point cut to the Federal Funds rate—mortgage interest rates have continued to increase, with the current 7% rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages increasing the monthly payments of new home owners.
“A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget can afford a $442,500 home with a 7% mortgage rate, the daily average 30-year fixed rate on October 28. That buyer has lost $33,250 in purchasing power over the last six weeks; they could have purchased a $475,750 home with the 6.11% average rate on September 17. That was the lowest level since February 2023,” Redfin said.
A significant number of voters are still unsure what will happen to mortgage interest rates, with 25% of voters reporting they don’t know what will happen with mortgage rates if Trump wins, and 26% saying they’re uncertain what will happen to mortgage rates if Harris wins, Redfin reported.
Housing affordability played an even larger role in local political races, Redfin found, with about 40% of early voters saying that the price of homes and rents impacted their decision at the polls.
While voters who have already cast their ballot were more likely to cite issues other than housing affordability, “it’s still an important factor for many voters. It has become much more difficult to afford to buy or rent a home since the pandemic-driven moving boom, which drove up housing costs,” Redfin said.
The leading concern for early voters was the economy (63%), followed by inflation (59%), protecting democracy (56%), immigration (55), healthcare (52%), crime and safety (47%) and access to abortion (45%). Housing and the nation's standing in the world tied at 38%, Redfin reported.
Despite the survey results, one advisors said he believes housing is low on the list of voters' economic concerns.
“People have an economic narrative, and their housing feelings play into that, and I certainly believe their economic narrative drives votes, but I do not think the housing narrative specifically is among the top drivers. ” David Bahnsen, founder and managing director of the Bahnsen Group, a wealth management firm based in Newport Beach, CA, told Financial Advisor magazine. "I believe it is an issue only on the margin."