since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.
The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Harvest Volatility Management, LLC.
- Apple announced last night
- Results were better than expected. No surprise there.
- The guidance wasn’t what the Street wanted though *and* Apple isn’t going to report their unit sales numbers going forward. This combination was viewed bearishly and the stock was punished.
- Overseas markets shook off the Apple news and rallied nicely
- Nonfarm payrolls was strong (+250k vs +200 est & +118k prior revised from +135k)
- This number might be a bit too strong. It will not give the Fed a reason to slow down.
- Wage growth was strong (3.1% vs 3.1% est & 2.8% prior)
- No surprise but this does not give the Fed a reason to slow down either.
- Trump tweeted that he instructed the US to draft/prepare a trade agreement with China
- Market rallied on this
- Leaks from the Administration and then and interview with Larry Kudlow revealed that there is no draft in progress and the US has not even talked to China about a trade agreement
- Market dropped on this
- Trump later said to the press that he said China wanted to make a deal
- Market didn’t move much on that…investors were skeptical by this point.
Those are the meaty events of the day. We’ve got a mish-mash of positive and negative news. The hope of the morning gave way to negativity by lunch.
The market ultimately fell.
I think we just found a short-term balance. The bounce is over but the world isn’t freaking out again. There’s a level of *uncertainty
* out there that both sides are respecting and/or not ignoring.Maybe, hopefully, we’re going to start doing some news-based trading next week. The last two weeks have been emotionally-driven, look-at-the-chart-and-react environments.
It’s better to get that behavior into the rearview mirror.
Have a great weekend, see youMonday
.-Mike
