since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.
The opinions expressed below are my own
It’s a fight. Bulls kept the buying party going this morning but bears had the last laugh in the afternoon. News today wasn’t terribly significant but there was a headline about how the Trump administration was considering limiting Chinese investments in technologies the US considers sensitive.
I have no idea what that means. Neither do you. Neither do the Chinese. *Maybe
* the Trump administration knows what that means.Tech stocks began to drop as a result and bearishness spread more broadly from there.
OK, et’s take a breath for a second and think about that Chinese/tech headline.
- This is *probably* another non-traditional move in the trade-negotiation poker game
- Do the vanguard of the US tech industry rely on (or even use) Chinese investments to do what they do?
- What’s China going to do in response?
- Is this an escalation of trade-tensions or just part of making the sausage?
I don’t know. I’m willing to guess the market is over-worrying about this (in the near term). Expect the narrative to change shortly. Prepare to hear that this “isn’t as bad” as it appears. Prepare for a Chinese response that isn’t a fold though. Prepare for a generally constructive tidbit about the overall negotiation later on.
When will all this happen?
I don’t know. If China follows their previous example, we should hear somethingtonight
.More important than the particulars of this phase of the trade negotiations, is the fact that we remain in a very rumor-driven, technically influenced, speculate first/analyze second stock market.
We are going to whip. Today’s just another example. I wouldn’t expect meaningful stability until the trade negotiations with China are concluded. While the game plays out, the market is going to *SWING
*! See youtomorrow
,-Mike