since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.
The opinions expressed below are my own and do not necessarily represent those of Harvest Volatility Management, LLC.
Yo-yo! So there are talks that China and the US are going to resume tariff talks. That’s a lot of talking. This is perceived as a positive and that the trade issues/frictions may go away soon. That news spurred the risk-on macro trade and probably encouraged the dip-buyers to jump in yet again. I’m sure shorts covered like maniacs as well. Capital flow was a respectable 96%. Today looks and feels like another knee-jerk emotional reaction to the prior day’s move.
If it continues, we’ll be going down againtomorrow
.Where are we in the Turkey crisis? That’s the question that I think matters most. The Turkish stock market dropped 3.5% today and the Lira strengthened 2%. That’s not a clear signal one way or the other.
From a 50,000 foot standpoint, we are in the same spot as yesterday, asTuesday
, asMonday
, etc.The situation is a bit dicey, the volatility is higher, the future is more cloudy and we don’t really know anything except that Turkey just went down hard.
I wouldn’t trust a move up or down in the market as far as I could throw a piano.
The next leg in the next trend is TBD.
See youtomorrow
,-Mike