Despite the title, I’m not one to make market predictions, mostly because I really don’t care. My entire 40+ year investment career has been spent developing and trading non-correlated investment strategies. I’m agnostic to market direction.
But for a lot of reasons, I have a bad feeling about people buying this market now. Actually, that is reason #1 that I have a bad feeling:
1. A lot of people are buying this market now. The enormous stock market rally off the lows on Friday the 13th was not the mark of a bottom. It was the sign of a relief rally/dead cat bounce that grew giddy when “fear of the market” transformed into “fear of missing out” (FOMO).
2. As another measure of sentiment, I have received numerous emails from investors talking about how they are rushing to buy now and no emails asking about protecting against further declines. In fact, as I am writing this, I was approached by another friend who shared his zeal over having bought the market on Friday. These people are convinced the worst is over and the market is headed higher. It’s a small sample set of course, but it is consistent with the message I am hearing from other friends in the investment industry. The FOMO is real. And these people are highly confident that even if the market falls further, it will only be a temporary drop. The actual words I’ve heard are “I’ll just ride it out.” Those are not the actions taken or the words we hear at a market bottom.
3. We are in a recession, not simply heading into one. When the statisticians weigh in later this year, it will become apparent that we are in one now. And it will last for much of this year, or longer. The global economy and corporate earnings will suffer tremendously. Anchoring bias prevents the majority of forecasters from making the same statement. As I said in Myth #13 of my 2011 bestseller, Jackass Investing: Don’t do it. Profit from it, “Experts aren’t experts.” In that section I relate how in December 2007 every analyst in a Business Week article predicted a higher stock market in 2008, with the confident forecasts clustered tightly around a 12% gain. Of course, what followed was one of the greatest bear markets in history. Most interestingly, when the analysts made those predictions in December 2007, the United States was already in a recession. They just didn’t know it yet.
4. A contrarian market sentiment strategy used by Brandywine to indicate turning points based on investor behavior has not yet indicated the extreme emotion required to signal a market buy. This is despite the huge selling that occurred leading up to Friday the 13th. In fact, this highly accurate indicator remains in a short position triggered two weeks ago.
5. The rally happened on Friday the 13th!! (That’s a joke. I know some people consider such factors in making their investment decision, along with phases of the moon, etc. Not me.) But I do think that the Friday the 13th rally will become synonymous with hiding behind the chain saws in the garage. It will prove to be a deceptive, and temporary, haven.
And the horror show will continue.
Michael Dever is CEO of Brandywine Asset Management.