President Donald Trump has long pinned his hopes for re-election on voters ignoring the controversies that have dogged his administration and rewarding him for a booming economy and strong jobs growth.
But a disappointing May jobs report that fell significantly short of expectations underscores the risks of the president’s strategy -- particularly at a moment when Trump is seeking to leverage U.S. economic strength on the international stage for political wins at home.
A Labor Department report on Friday showing employers added only 75,000 jobs in May served as the latest sign the economy is slowing as Trump heads toward the 2020 campaign. Wages also posted the slowest growth since September. Data on retail sales, factory output and home purchases also show the economy struggling this quarter.
Payroll growth also has slowed noticeably this year, to a 164,000 monthly average, down from a 223,000 monthly average in 2018.
“It definitely looks like we’ve downshifted in the pace of job growth,” said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist for JPMorgan Chase & Co., who called the job results “disheartening.” He added that the Labor Department survey, taken in the middle of the month, probably didn’t capture the full impact of escalating trade tensions.
Troubling Developments
Those are all troubling developments for the White House, which has repeatedly argued that Trump’s unconventional style and willingness to flout the norms of Washington can be justified as a businessman president bringing prosperity to the nation.
Trump’s reliance on economic strength is laid bare in polling data, which shows the issue as a rare area where voters give the president credit. In an Economist/YouGov poll released this week, 48% of Americans said they approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, with 40% disapproving.
But Trump is underwater on nearly every other issue surveyed, from social issues like abortion and civil rights to government priorities like education, immigration, health care and foreign policy.
White House and campaign officials have openly acknowledged that a thriving economy is central to the president’s re-election chances. They note that a strong economy in an election year has historically been among the best predictors of a president’s re-election, absent a war with significant U.S. casualties.
‘Best Economy’
“There’s nobody that I see that should be able to win,” Trump said of his potential Democratic opponents in an interview earlier this week with ITV. “Look, I’m running on the best economy in our history.”