A lot of young men love Donald Trump. Normally young people identify as Democrats. This year, according to exit polls, Trump won nearly half of young men — those aged 18 to 24 — and it helped propel him to victory. He appeals to young men across lines of race, ethnicity and even nationality.
What explains Trump’s appeal? Part of it is surely a cultural backlash. Some social trends, such as the focus on increasing opportunities and responsibilities for women, may have made men feel marginalized, and Trump embodies everything cultural scolds hate. Trump also ran a campaign that directly appealed to the interests of younger men, with his embrace of crypto and appearances on podcasts like Joe Rogan’s. He also survived two assassination attempts, winning praise and admiration from such young(ish) men as Mark Zuckerberg.
Still, the best explanation may be economic. Many men saw their fortunes improve during the first Trump presidency. After years of stagnation, the wages of men aged 21 to 35 rose throughout his tenure. They fell in the first few years of the pandemic, and started to increase again in the last year. But that may have been too little, too late.
Even before 2017, many men were struggling and working less. After each recession of the past two decades, more left the labor market and never came back. The last recovery appeared to be an exception, with more people overall returning to work. But that recovery benefited women so disproportionately that it was known in some quarters as the “she-covery.”
The current female labor force participation rate has never been higher. In contrast, the male labor force participation rate, which was increasing under Trump, fell during the pandemic and has only just returned to pre-pandemic levels.
Some of the decline is because more people are going to college. But young men are falling behind here too, which means they often face lower wages and a higher risk of unemployment.
There are some bright spots for young men: Median net worth nearly tripled between 2019 and 2022, and unemployment remains historically low. But many young men may see the larger economic trends as threatening: A lot of the job growth is in sectors that have historically hired women, such as caretaking and education. The future seems less male than the present.
And here’s where the difference between Trump’s rhetoric and polices comes into play. Trump may have made young men feel heard during the campaign, and they did experience some genuine improvements during his administration. But the shifts in the job market are real, and it’s not clear Trump’s policies will help young men adapt.
Imposing tariffs in an attempt to revive manufacturing is just glorified welfare that does not help anyone thrive in the modern economy, including young men. The manufacturing sector isn’t as large as it used to be, for one. For another, unemployment in the sector is low — if a young man isn’t working, it’s unlikely he’s in manufacturing.
Trump does have some policies that could help young men. He favors deregulation that makes it easier to hire, fire, and allow for less traditional employment relationships. During his first administration, he favored fewer degree requirements for some federal jobs. Both policies can make the labor market more dynamic and fluid, offering young men more opportunity.
When he takes office in January, Trump will face a choice. He can follow through on his promise of high tariffs in a misguided attempt to restore the economy of the past. Or he can build on the policies of his first administration that improved the wages of young men, encouraging them to join the labor force and work with dignity.
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.