4. Corporate Leaders

Globally, leaders of multinational companies will face a significantly more confrontational regulatory environment as governments manage slowing growth, widening inequality and security challenges. Regulating “big tech” is gaining favor in the U.S., where earnings projections are already under pressure, even under a president who has called for deregulation since taking office in 2017, with a focus on environmental rules.

5. Tough Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s controversial social policies will result in intensified sectarian instability as well as foreign policy and economic setbacks, Eurasia said. His social agenda helped empower a key base of Hindu nationalists who oppose market opening and support economic nationalism, giving Modi less room to maneuver on an economic overhaul.

6. European Friction

Europe will push back against Washington and Beijing in an effort to break down barriers to military trade and technological development. The Trump administration will view this as an affront, especially considering few European nations have fulfilled their NATO promises on defense spending. That increases the risk of punitive tariffs on some of the continent’s more export-driven sectors such as automobiles and consumer goods.

7. Climate Change

Governments, corporate leadership and investors will face more pressure to align with environmental, sustainability and governance criteria, as well as increased costs, in 2020. Social movements and public unrest could also be more likely, especially as natural disasters become more common as the planet warms.

8. Middle East

The recent escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran with the killing of Qassem Suleimani, while regionally destabilizing, is near the bottom of Eurasia’s list. While Iran may launch some smaller charges, “the attacks in response by the U.S. will be more commensurate and less disproportionate than Trump has tweeted,” Bremmer said.