Dethroning the dollar is easier said than done.
That’s the conclusion of investors after Washington’s freeze of Russia’s dollar holdings created fresh impetus among central bankers to rethink the security of access to foreign-exchange reserves. The move fueled speculation that countries such as China could redouble efforts to unshackle itself from greenback-denominated financial systems and look for alternatives.
While Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG have flagged threats to the dollar’s supremacy, finding a valid replacement is going to be extremely challenging, according to funds from Brandywine Global Investment Management to JPMorgan Asset Management. The size and strength of the world’s largest economy is unparalleled, Treasuries are still one of the safest ways to store money and the dollar remains a pre-eminent beneficiary of haven flows.
There are simply “no other options at this stage in the game” for currency alternatives to the greenback, said Mark Mobius, a four-decade markets veteran and founder of Mobius Capital Partners. “The dollar is still strong and will probably get stronger if tensions continue to escalate.”
History backs up his view.
Despite warnings of the dollar’s demise after the 2008 financial crisis, the currency soared when the Federal Reserve adopted an even more globalized role in helping to rescue the world’s financial system. Nearly 90% of trades across the $6.6 trillion-a-day foreign-exchange market still involve the greenback, Bank for International Settlements data show.
The U.S. currency also makes up around 60% of central bank foreign-exchange reserves in spite of efforts to steadily reduce dollar holdings, according to International Monetary Fund data. Its closest rival, the euro, makes up about 20% of stockpiles.
A gauge of the dollar rose 0.2% on Monday, after its first weekly loss in a month.
“You can buy yen, euro or Aussie to diversify but I don’t think they can truly replace the dollar as a reserve,” said Kerry Craig, strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management in Melbourne. “The U.S. remains a dominant power on the global economic stage.”
While the Central Bank of Russia had made inroads in reducing its dollar holdings in favor of alternatives such as gold, recent events show that its efforts may have been in vain, according to Agnes Belaisch, chief European strategist at Baring Investment Services Ltd. in London.