Advisors get paid to worry, and few get paid more to worry about what happens in Washington, D.C., than Horizon Investments' chief political strategist Greg Valliere. In a talk this morning before the Investments & Wealth Institute in New York City, the longtime Beltway observer shared his biggest fears with advisors.

A shutdown of the Federal government this weekend is likely, though Valliere said a brief shutdown would have little impact on the financial markets. An extended shutdown of several weeks would be a different matter and could have a negative effect on asset prices,

Both political parties are "itching for a fight," he noted. "We're likely to get a shutdown, either now" or in February.

But the prospect of a trade war could be far more problematic for the U.S. economy. Valliere cited Canada, which makes a huge percentage of trucks sold in America, and China as places where trade wars could erupt.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is seriously concerned about a possible trade skirmish, and both U.S. manufacturers and agricultural businesses could be adversely impacted. President Trump appears to be willing to challenge China on trade, even though many of chief economic advisors are not.

A string of indictments from special prosecutor Robert Mueller also are coming soon, according to Valliere. Getting a perjury indictment in Washington is easy, but the political strategist speculated that ultimately Moeller might be able to get money laundering indictments, possibly against first family members Donald Trump Jr. and son-in-law Jared Kushner.

Like most special prosecutors, Moeller will use a series of plea bargains to strong-arm various players in the drama to testify against each other. The president has said he won't fire Moeller. However, Valliere said that wasn't "out of the question" if Trump's family members are indicted, especially for alleged crimes that have little to do with the original scope of the investigation. For example, former campaign manager Paul Manafort already is believed to be under investigation for money laundering activities that occurred a decade ago.

"Robert Moeller isn't going away," Valliere said. The former FBI director will remain a major figure on the Washington stage for 2018 and beyond.

Valliere considers it unlikely that the president will be removed from office, even though he now believes the Democrats have a better than 50 percent chance of retaking the House of Representatives in November.

Removing a president requires 67 senators to convict him of impeachment and the votes in the Senate won't be there. The last time a president was impeached was President Clinton in 1998 and a prolonged bull market in equities was oblivious to the proceedings.

In Trump's case, Valliere also mentioned health issues, exacerbated by the president's contempt for exercise. He claimed Trump drives his golf cart onto the green, which is only permissible if you own the golf course. He also cited a Secret Service agent he knows well who reports he has never seen the president eat a piece of fruit.

Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is moving along at a strong clip and Valliere said he thought 2.7 to 3.0 percent growth was possible this year, thanks partly to front-loaded tax cuts. Unfortunately, no one in Washington "gives a damn about the deficit" and Valliere posited that even with continued economic growth and 4 percent unemployment, trillion-dollar deficits could become the norm early in the next decade.

"Politicians know this" but they say the markets are concerned, he said. "All the prescriptions are radioactive."

Valliere thinks even if the Democrats regain the House and Senate, the latter of which he considers unlikely, the Democratic agenda won't go anywhere. The president will retain veto power over any legislation, so neither party may be able to achieve much.

But the Democrats face major challenges, starting with no compelling message or agenda, Valliere said. This lack of direction or purpose explained the failure of Hillary Clinton's campaign. Though she was a heavy favorite, her only message was "Trump stinks," and the results were a humiliating defeat.

Virtually all their leaders are in their seventies. Valliere joked they might want bring back 88-year-old Michael Dukakis and 90-year-old Walter Mondale.

If 76-year-old Sen. Bernie Sanders, a favorite of millennials, doesn't run, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, whom Valliere called "an electrifying demagogue," might carry the banner for the Democratic party's hard left wing.

Geopolitics present another source of concern. Last weekend's false alarm of a nuclear attack in Hawaii show how easy it could be for a mistake to turn into disaster.