The rise of U.S. presidential contender Elizabeth Warren is “the single biggest risk for the market,” according to Rob Citrone, founder of hedge fund Discovery Capital Management.
“I think if Elizabeth Warren is leading the way into the February primaries, the S&P will be down 10, 15, 20%,” Citrone said at the C4K Investors Conference in Toronto on Wednesday. “Her policies on regulation, on taxes, on a lot of different things, are substantially different than anything we’ve had in our country before.”
Citrone, who runs a macro-focused hedge fund firm with $2.5 billion in assets, sees volatility ahead as Democrats prepare to pick a candidate to run against President Donald Trump. The growing popularity of Senator Warren, who advocates for a wealth tax, Medicare-for-all and reining in private equity, is stoking fear on Wall Street.
The markets aren’t prepared for the prospect of the Democratic party’s left wing gaining power, said Citrone, who is a registered independent. He rarely backs presidential candidates but donated money to Republican Mitt Romney during the 2012 campaign.
Turkey Crisis
Citrone’s comments strike a different tone from billionaire Michael Novogratz, who said at a benefit last week that his peers should “lighten up” and stop worrying so much about Warren. Novogratz, the founder of cryptocurrency firm Galaxy Investment Partners, said 97% of the people he knows “are really, really fearful of her” because they think she’s seen as “anti-rich.”
On the international front, Citrone said Turkey and Mexico are headed toward economic crises and may fall into recessions.
“Turkey will have a good old fashioned emerging market crisis” over the next couple of years, with the Turkish Lira dropping by 50%, credit spreads widening and the stock market going down, he said in his presentation. “If there’s one country and one market that is a substantial short over the next couple of years it’s Turkey.”
On Mexico, he said President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is presiding over the slow “deterioration” of the country’s institutions. “I think he’s going to take the country to crisis,” Citrone said.
Discovery is based in South Norwalk, Connecticut.